Richard Aikman / 17 January 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Given the events that have overshadowed the tournament it is a matter of huge national importance for Angolans to salvage some pride and the clean sheet against Malawi will have been almost as satisfying for coach Manuel Jose as the goals scored by Flavio and Manucho."

There is little to choose between Angola and Algeria, who face off in their final group decider in Luanda. Algeria, priced at [3.05] to win, boast the star names and a place at the summer's World Cup; Angola [2.64] have home advantage and the group lead. With both sides winning their last match and separated by just a point, the question is - which side has the momentum?

There will obviously be plenty of pressure on the hosts, who will be relieved at responding to their extraordinary capitulation against Mali on opening day, with a 2-0 win over Malawi. Angola deserve great credit for their response to that four-goal fiasco, as they had to contend with an expectant crowd and the conspicuous presence of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos observing the Malawi match.

Given the events that have overshadowed the tournament it is a matter of huge national importance for Angolans to salvage some pride and the clean sheet against Malawi will have been almost as satisfying for coach Manuel Jose as the goals scored by Flavio and Manucho.

However, Jose is again sweating over the fitness of striker Flavio, winger Gilberto and midfielder Dede. While the latter, who missed the Malawi win after picking up a knock against Mali, was ably replaced by Djalma, Flavio and Gilberto - two of Angola's best players - came off injured on Thursday and are crucial to their side's cause.

Algeria are no strangers to pressure themselves and it doesn't come much more intense than November's crunch World Cup play-off win over Egypt, when they beat their fierce rivals 1-0 thanks to Antar Yahia's strike. Nonetheless, this week coach Rabah Saadane denied journalists entry to the 'open' training session after they criticised his side's 3-0 loss to Malawi, suggesting nerves are beginning to fray in the north African camp.

What has probably been bothering Saadane most of all are the injuries to Yahia and goalkeeper Lounes Gaouaoui, who has been struck down with appendicitis. The pair's absence made the 1-0 win over Mali all the more impressive, even if their opponents were appallingly disjointed. Karim Ziani lit up the match by setting up centre-back Rafik Halliche's goal, but without Yahia, their attack looks toothless, while Gaouaoui's replacement Faouizi Chaouchi is an accident waiting to happen. Chaouchi was at fault for two of Malawi's goals in the first match and, against Mali, had to be baled out by Madjid Bougherra when he almost fumbled the ball into his own net in added time.

Ordinarily, Algeria could be trusted to come though this match. But with Bougherra also admitting that their many Europe-based players are struggling with the heat, key absences weighing heavy on the side and a hard-working Angola happy to settle for a point, a draw looks the most likely outcome.

Richard Aikman says: Back the draw @ [3.25]
Back the draw Correct score 1-1 @ [6.6]