Recent entries in Football
Champions League betting 2010
Matthew Walton / 18 May 2010 Free Bet View Market
Former Champions League winner Louis Van Gaal celebrates with Mark Van Bommel on a job well done in making the final
"A fascinating final with a contrast of styles, added to a lack of head-to-head statistics, make the match tricky to assess … so that’s why a use of the widely available past cup final data can prove so profitable."
Switching this year's final to a Saturday, the first in the competition's history, has lifted the Champions League to a position of even greater importance (if that were at all possible) within the footballing world ... but thankfully we've two teams in action capable of living up to such a prestigious occasion.
Four time former champions Bayern Munich, coached by a previous winner (Louis Van Gaal, Ajax 1995) have a great 'modern day' pedigree but Inter Milan, a side led by another former cup winner (Jose Mourinho, Porto 2004) twice won the trophy in the 1960's and will surely fear nobody having dispatched the tournament favourites, Barcelona, in the SF's.
It promises to be a titanic battle made all the more intriguing as these two European heavyweights have little history between them - their last meetings being in the Group stages of 2006/07 competition when Bayern won 2-0 in the San Siro and Inter scraped a 1-1 in Munich - which means the best way to study this match is not so much through the past record of the two teams but of the final itself.
Reviewing the last 20 Champions League/European Cup deciders we see a marked difference from the data generated by the Europa League/UEFA Cup - in short, we should expect a low-scoring, tight match where a goal either way will make a big difference (only 5 of the last 20 finals have been won by more than one goal).
In all finals since 1989/90 there have been just 44 goals scored in 20 matches, that's an average of only 2.2 goals/game. Of these, the total is split 22/22 between the first and second half - strange, as you'd normally expect to see more goals scored in the second half. The over/under 2.5 goals make-up is 11:9 in favour of the lower figure.
There have been 6 drawn finals in the last 20 years. Liverpool/AC Milan was the last in 2004/05 ... also the last match to go to penalties (NB: these 6 drawn finals saw only one extra time winner, Barcelona beating Sampdoria 1-0 in 1991/92, the other five ended in a shootout).
Most common full-time results are 0-0 (3), 1-0 (4), 1-1 (3) and 2-1 (4) which account for 60% of the championship matches over the last two decades. Average time of the first goal is 41 minutes (taking 0-0 as 90) and the team scoring first has won 14 of the last 20 finals with Arsenal 2005/06 being the last team to score first who didn't then go on to lift the trophy.
The profile of the two finalists is interesting with Inter (P12 - W7 D3 L2 - F15 A9) having a much more solid record in this year's tournament than Bayern (P12 - W7 D2 L4 - F21 A13).
That probably explains why Inter at [2.36] are favourites in the Match Odds with the Germans [3.55], even bigger than the draw at [3.35]. And with the stalemate being spot-on in terms of value (6 draws in the last 20 finals equating to 30% or odds of around 3.40) then a result either way is where the value lies.
That choice is open to your personal preference but several markets, on the available data, offer much more evident value betting opportunities.
For example a Half Time Score of 1-0 Inter [4.1] or 1-0 Bayern [5.2] as 9 of the last 20 finals have been 1-0 either way at the break and the data is also very strong on their respective matches this season.
Moreover, go for either Inter/Inter [4.3] or Bayern/Bayern [6.6] on the Half Time/Full Time as the stats make this a [2.5] combined odds bet .
Under 2.5 goals at [1.62] is the logical call but it's statistically too short, therefore value might lie in under 1.5 goalsat [2.96].
Correct Score bets favour Inter 1-0 [7.8] but Bayern supporters should look for 2-1 [15.0] as the most likely result should the Germans prevail.
A fascinating final with a contrast of styles, added to a lack of head-to-head statistics, make the match tricky to assess ... so that's why a use of the widely available past cup final data can prove so profitable.
