James Eastham / 22 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"It's great to be able to call upon Gabriel Milito and Sergio Busquets, of course - but replacing four players in one go would considerably weaken Barcelona in defence and midfield."

The biggest obstacle to Barcelona winning their last 16 first leg in Stuttgart on Tuesday is an injury list that may deprive them of their first-choice full-backs and two midfielders.

Right-back Dani Alves and left-back Eric Abidal - ever-presents for the Catalans in the group stage - are tipped to miss the game through calf and groin injuries respectively, while midfielders Xavi and Seydou Keita (who also appeared in all six games in the group stages) are also unlikely starters.

Of those four, only Dani Alves and Xavi have been included in the squad, and reports at the time of writing make the pair less than 50-50 to start.

How much Barcelona's chances will be affected by those four possible absentees largely depends how highly you rate their understudies. Only 13 outfield Barca players started two or more games during the group stage, which suggests that coach Josep Guardiola doesn't have the squad riches available to other managers. It's great to be able to call upon Gabriel Milito and Sergio Busquets, of course - but replacing four players in one go would considerably weaken Barcelona in defence and midfield.

I still make them favourites, as there's little to suggest Stuttgart have the quality to trouble the tournament holders. The German side finished four points behind Group G winners Sevilla - not as good as Barcelona in the Spanish League - to reach this stage, and have hardly any pedigree in the competition. They last appeared in the second round six seasons ago, have failed to reach the last eight of any European competition since 1998 and are already out of the running for the German League title (they lie ninth, 18pts off the top).

A host of other stats point to a draw or an away victory, namely that Barcelona are unbeaten in nine away games (four wins, five draws) in the competition and have won four and drawn two of their last six trips to Germany. The Catalans also have recent experience of winning in the Mercedes-Benz Arena, having triumphed 2-0 there in the group stages two seasons ago. And Stuttgart have managed just one win in 11 previous meetings against Spanish sides, and that came at home to Real Sociedad 21 years ago.

History is on Barca's side, then, but given their injuries I´m unwilling to back them at [1.68] to win on the night. Not that I'm recommending Stuttgart at [6.0], though; if you want a bet on the match outcome, it has to be the draw at [4.1].

My strongest recommendation is both teams to score at [1.85], because Barcelona's potentially reshuffled defence and diminished midfield makes them more vulnerable. Both teams have scored on the last three occasions when Barcelona have played away in the first leg at this stage - against Lyon (1-1) last season, Celtic (3-2) in 2007-08 and Chelsea (3-2) in 2005-06.

Recommended Bets: Draw @ [4.1]; both teams to score @ [1.85].