Matthew Walton / 23 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

"Liverpool are just about to fall completely off the radar as an early price of [13.5] has proven to be totally misleading. Rafa Benitez's side could exit the competition this coming week."

Although barely past the halfway point in the Group Stage, the outright winner market for this year's Champions League is already beginning to take shape. However, it's slightly harder to state what exactly that shape is.

The fact is, when considering which team will lift the trophy in the Bernábeu next May the market isn't necessarily the best guide. A strange statement to make, perhaps, but not as odd as you might think.

Take the market leaders at the start of the competition. The defending champions Barcelona traded at [5.0] whilst Real Madrid were generally available around [6.0] after numerous pre-season signings caused a major shortening of their price. They were the teams to beat in the tournament.

A month or two later Barca have drifted out to [5.9], Madrid have suffered an even bigger shift out to [8.0], and neither side has exactly looked like Europe-beaters thus far.

Of more alarm, Liverpool are just about to fall completely off the radar as an early price of [13.5] has proven to be totally misleading. Rafa Benitez's side could exit the competition this coming week.

The same goes for the former champions Bayern Munich. Clearly, the Bavarians aren't the force of old but a price explosion from [38.0] out to [120.00] is another graphic illustration of just how misleading the market was back at the start of proceedings.

And so, if it was wrong then ... why should it be taken as correct now?

But, of course, not every side can be on the slide - for every team moving out in the betting, there's always another one shortening up.

Inter Milan, [12.5] before the off, have consolidated their position in the market (admittedly after a blip against Dynamo Kiev which briefly saw them matched at [50.0] before two late goals saved them). The Nerrazurri now hover around [11.5].

Similarly, Manchester United [9.8] are a fraction shorter than at the start of the tournament when they were initially [10.5], having already drifted after losing both Carlos Tevez and Cristiano Ronaldo.

However, the two big movers amongst the original top eight in the betting are Arsenal, at one time [20.0] but now less than half the price at [10.0] and Chelsea who started out around [9.0] but now trade as [5.0] favourites.

Elsewhere, from outside of the customary usual suspects, the only side to be taken remotely seriously by the market are Seville - but even they have gone from [48.0] to [24.0] via a rather circuitous route, trading at [150.0] at one point! Others like Bordeaux [70.0], Porto [80.0] and Fiorentina [90.0] are still being dismissed as nothing more than gate-crashers to the party ... soon to be ejected.

Obviously, a market will always become more informative as an event is played out - as certain parties come to the fore and others fall off the pace. In this respect, the current market is certainly a more useful guide to finding the winner than it was back in August but, that said, just because Chelsea are the favourites now, does that mean they're going to lift the trophy next year?

What should be remembered is that in late November we're still six months off the conclusion of this tournament. Much can change, as it already has, and teams who look good now might not appear quite so good next February or March - and, naturally, the opposite could be true.

One could argue that Madrid will only improve as the season develops and their new players settle in. Manchester United, likewise, may have been dismissed rather too lightly as they overcome the loss of Ronaldo. In an open looking competition a side like Inter Milan or Seville will give the market leaders a run for their money.

Therefore, backers, and layers, should be aware that the market is prone to big changes, often in very short spaces of time, and those prepared to think beyond simply the current prices can still find themselves some exceptional value.