Recent entries in Champions League
Champions League Betting: Manchester United v Wolfsburg
James Eastham / 30 September 2009 Free Bet View Market
Grafite has terrorised Bundesliga defences in recent times and doesn't look out of his depth in the Champions League so far.
Recommended bets: Man Utd-Man Utd @ 2.08; over 2.5 goals @ 1.71; both teams to score @ 1.83.
Most sides facing Manchester United at Old Trafford employ defensive tactics in a bid to nick a point or, at the very least, limit the damage, but you have to question whether this week's visitors, Wolfsburg, have the instinct or intellect to play safety-first football.
Games involving the Bundesliga champions usually guarantee entertainment because they score and concede at a remarkable rate: Wolfsburg's 34 league games averaged 3.56 goals a game last season, with a further 3.63 goals a game in eight Uefa Cup fixtures for good measure. Thirty-two of those 42 games (76%) had over 2.5 goals, with exactly half containing over 3.5 goals.
Wolfsburg have made a poor start to their title defence - three defeats from their opening seven league games is not exactly what new manager Armin Veh was looking for - but the high-scoring trend remains incontrovertible: seven of eight games, including their opening Champions League 3-1 win over CSKA Moscow a fortnight ago, have had over 2.5 goals, with five games featuring over 3.5 goals.
United are less cavalier than they once were in Europe, but Sir Alex Ferguson has never lost his belief in United outscoring anybody when the need arises. His players justified such faith in their ability by beating Manchester City 4-3 10 days ago, and the home side would be more than confident of prevailing should this game turn into a shoot-on-sight contest.
Wolfsburg's highest-profile player is Grafite, who was the Bundesliga's top scorer with 28 goals in 25 appearances last season and scored a hat-trick in that opening win against CSKA Moscow two weeks ago. Even if the prolific 30-year-old Brazilian find the net, however, the visitors' defensive record suggests their chances holding out against a United side that has scored an average of 2.1 goals a game this season are virtually non-existent.
United are [1.38], with Wolfsburg [11.5] and the draw [5.2], but the best bet is over 2.5 goals, available at the remarkably big price of [1.71]. I expect Man Utd to win both halves, and both teams to score is available at a price of [1.83], slightly too big considering Wolfsburg's scoring record.
* Manchester Utd v Wolfsburg, ITV1, Wednesday, 7.30pm (7.45pm kick-off)
