Editor / 12 May 2009 Free Bet

Even if he'd been wearing a top hat, black cape and was twirling a thin handlebar moustache between his forefinger and thumb, Reading's Andre Bikey couldn't have made a better job of being the villain of the 1-0 first leg defeat at Turf Moor.

The Royals looked well capable of holding, and even shading, Burnley - but then Bikey really did steal the show for all the wrong reasons. If the clumsy match-winning penalty he conceded wasn't enough, his crass stamp on Robbie Blake at the death - followed by some pure comic book ranting and shirt-throwing - means Burnley head into the second leg on a high, while Reading must be more than a little concerned.

Steve Coppell's side have been truly awful at home ; they have not won at the Madejski since January, and their last eight games there have produced three draws and five defeats. It's true that the Play-Offs often ignore recent form, but Reading - and their fans - are bound to have such a dismal run in their minds.

By contrast, Burnley have only lost one of their last eight on the road and there's no shame in being beaten at Cardiff. They have drawn five of those, and I am confident they will manage at least the same again. Therefore, I suggest laying Reading at [2.06]. You can back Burnley at [4.2] and The Draw is [3.45] - both of those look on the big side to me, given the form of the two participants.

What's most eye-catching about Burnley's recent away form is that they have scored at least once in each of those last eight road trips. In fact, they have netted in 19 of their last 20 outings: the exception, the FA Cup defeat at Arsenal, was certainly excusable.

Therefore, my best bet in this one is 'No' to a Reading Clean Sheet at [1.53].

Clearly, Coppell's boys must go forward and with Burnley well able to hit on the counter, I think this could be the highest scoring of the four semi-final legs. Therefore, back Over 2.5 goals at [2.04], and that bet will be even stronger in my mind should the second leg of the Sheffield United/Preston game fail to pay out in that market. Only once in the 20-year history of the Championship Play-Offs have the four semi-final legs failed to offer one game with three or more goals.

My idea of the Correct Score would be 2-2, which can be backed at [17.0]. When the market matures, also think about backing Burnley defender Graham Alexander in the To Score market. He's netted four times in the last three games - all penalties - and he's also got a kick like a mule from dead-ball situations and open play, if in a shooting position.

You'll get some fun for your money with any Burnley free-kicks in and around the area and Alexander just doesn't miss if given a chance from the spot. It's just a shame Bikey won't be around to make that a bit more likely.

Good luck with your staking. This one might just catch fire!