Richard Aikman / 28 April 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Los Colchoneros will be kicking themselves that they didn’t make the most of their chances at the Vicente Calderon last week, even if Diego Forlan’s early goal has given them a one-goal advantage."

A quick glance at Liverpool's home form is enough to justify why they are odds-on favourites at [1.64] to win on Thursday night. But Atletico Madrid have been surprising European opponents on the road all season and have enough about them to get the draw [4.4] that has been their speciality of late - and which would be enough to see them qualify for the Europa League final at [1.83].

Anfield on a European night is not the easiest place to visit, especially not when the hosts have won ten of their last eleven matches their (and drawn the other) so to win ([5.9]) at this famous home of football would be a remarkable achievement for Atletico, who have not tasted European success since claiming the Cup Winners' Cup in 1986 and who face a Liverpool side that has scored at least three times in four of their last five home matches.

When you also consider that the Atletico road show virtually guarantees goals, you can appreciate why over 2.5 goals is priced as low as [1.88]. The last six matches involving Quique Sanchez Flores's side have all provided a minimum of three goals, as have eight out of the last nine - and bearing in mind that the Rojiblancos drew 2-2 in their last two away games in this competition over 3.5 goals [3.25] might be worth a punt. So indeed might another 2-2 at [20.0].

It remains to be seen what formation Rafa Benitez will deploy but his defensive away, offensive at home philosophy has been the cornerstone of his side's Champions League successes to date and this year's Europa League. Liverpool fans will be hoping Alberto Aquilani, who was dropped for the away leg, gets the nod for this encounter, in preference to the less creative Lucas. The Italian was superb in the 4-0 thrashing of Burnley on Sunday and his range of passing is surely more likely to unlock Atleti's defence, which will contain Tomas Ujfalusi, despite a recent groin problem.

Los Colchoneros will be kicking themselves that they didn't make the most of their chances at the Vicente Calderon last week, even if Diego Forlan's early goal has given them a one-goal advantage.

Forlan, Ujfalusi and Simão each missed further opportunities to extend that lead which would have made Liverpool's task far harder. But Los Rojiblancos know the Reds remain without Fernando Torres while Atletico welcome back Sergio Aguero from suspension - and the presence of the Argentinian, who has scored on his last two appearances - including the 3-1 defeat of Tenerife at the weekend, should suffice to at least guarantee the Spaniards a sixth European draw in seven matches.

Recommended bets: Draw [4.4]; over 3.5 goals [3.25]; Correct score 2-2 [20]