Mike Norman / 06 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

Best Bet: Back Birmingham @ [1.88] to beat Wolves

Also: Back Birmingham HT/Birmingham FT @ [3.2]; Back Yes to Birmingham Clean Sheet @ [2.28]; Back 1-0 @ [7.2] and 2-0 @ [8.4] Correct Scores (split stakes)

Forget about recent results, ignore league positions, and disregard team news, after all, this is a local derby and the formbook goes completely out of the window - or so they say.

Well believe me it doesn't. The only time I would ever advise anyone to ignore the formbook in football is when it comes to cup competitions - Leeds beating Man Utd, Reading beating Liverpool, and Notts County beating Wigan affording us three fine recent examples if any where needed. But when it comes to a derby match I'm a massive advocate of backing the better team, and even more so if that team is in good recent form.

Before I move onto Birmingham v Wolves I will give you a few examples of what I mean. In a derby between Arsenal and Spurs it's generally regarded that the Gunners are the better team - Arsenal are unbeaten in 20 league games against their North London rivals. It's the same picture between Chelsea and Fulham. The Blues have lost just one of their last 23 league games against the Cottagers.

Almost everywhere you look you'll find a similar pattern. Everton (normally the underdogs) have only beaten Liverpool twice in the last 20 league derbies, Manchester City have won just five out of the last 30 league encounters against United, and even my side Middlesbrough - often the outsiders - have won only three in 25 derby matches against North East rivals Newcastle.

So as you can see, the favourites (or better quality side if you like) seldom get beat in derby matches, which is why I'm all over Birmingham at [1.88] to beat Wolves ([5.2]) in this Sunday's West Midlands derby. The Draw can be backed at [3.6].

Alex McLeish's side have been the surprise package of the season, but as I said last week when predicting Brum wouldn't lose to Tottenham, you don't go 15 games unbeaten without having some decent quality and excellent team spirit within the squad. The quality comes in the shape of a blooming central defensive partnership between Scott Dann and Roger Johnson who have been fantastic in helping their team record nine clean sheets already this term.

Midfielders Sebastian Larsson, Lee Bowyer (who'd have thought it) and Barry Ferguson have also been magnificent for McLeish, whilst although not scoring many goals, you'll have to go a long way to find a more willing and hard-working striker than Christian Benitez. Birmingham are expected to name an unchanged side for their 12th consecutive Premier League fixture.

Having waxed lyrical about the Blues I have to admit to being a bit of a Wolves fan also. Mick McCarthy is getting the best out of a bad bunch at Molineux and I sincerely hope they manage to stay up. However, Wanderers' away form (just one win since August) is of definite concern in contrast to Birmingham's excellent run of eight home games without defeat. The home side have lost just once (to Chelsea) in 17 league and cup games whilst Wolves are on a winless run of five now in the Premier League.

With everything considered I have to fancy Birmingham to win this one, and although I'm more than happy to back them at [1.88] in the Match Odds market, backing Birmingham/Birmingham at [3.2] in the Half Time/Full Time market also appeals.

I don't think we'll see a deluge of goals - quite the opposite in fact, so I make Under 2.5 Goals another selection - available to back at [1.7] - whilst in the Correct Score market the 1-0 ([7.2]) and 2-0 ([8.4]) options to the home side have received an even split of my stake. Finally, I can see Dann and Johnson being at the heart of another clean sheet so wouldn't hesitate to back the Yes option at [2.28] in the Birmingham Clean Sheet market. Remember, it may be a derby, but the formbook DOES matter.

Birmingham v Wolves can be seen live on Sky Sport1 this Sunday, kick-off 1.30pm