Richard Walker / 31 January 2010 Free Bet View Market

"So for true stats fans, my chief suggestion – to back Stoke at [3.9] – will not sit easily, but here are two sides who could barely feel much more different about their own lot. They are separated by just two points in the table – but their recent tales are entirely different."

Just look at what's happened to these two sides of late and you'd be tempted by the price to back Stoke City at the Stadium of Light on Monday evening.

A brief inspection of recent form would confirm the notion that City are doing just fine - while for Sunderland, everything that can go wrong, is going wrong.

However the rather sizeable fly in the ointment here is the dismal away record of Tony Pulis's side. That their recent form is holding up nicely is supported in no measure by the fact their last five games have all been at home.

So for true stats fans, my chief suggestion - to back Stoke at [3.9] - will not sit easily, but here are two sides who could barely feel much more different about their own lot. They are separated by just two points in the table - but their recent tales are entirely different.

The Potters have no significant injuries at all. Meanwhile, on Wearside, without a league victory for nine Premier League games since beating Arsenal back in November, Steve Bruce must still do without midfield talisman Lee Cattermole (hamstring), and have Anton Ferdinand, Kieran Richardson, John Mensah, Phil Bardsley, Nyron Nosworthy and Michael Turner all sidelined by injury.

Oh, and you can also factor in that Bruce has gone so far as to admit the recent transfer talk linking striker Kenwyne Jones to Liverpool has had a genuinely unsettling effect on the player.

The [2.16] about the hosts looks simply too short. My only slight concern is the [3.45] Draw, but it's not nagging enough to force a Lay of the home team. You may disagree, of course; that's the beauty of Betfair after all.

Not one player in the City squad has scored more than two goals - just 19 goals in all, yet only 26 conceded. Under 2.5 goals is [1.79] and looks the likely play for many. Overs is [2.22] but I'm just not sure there'll even be two. Pulis will come primarily to leave with at least a point. It might pay to back Under 1.5 goals at [3.2].

I think laying Kenwyne Jones to score the first goal, at something like [8.0], is, given his current mood, about as certain as I could get in the goalscoring stakes. Darren Bent, with 14 in 22 on Wearside, should be considered of course, but will his out-of-sorts side - who've done nothing in the transfer market to this point - provide enough chances for him?

My mind's eye associates Stoke with low-scoring games and the statistics do bear that out for the most part. The correct score favourite is 1-1 at [7.2], with 1-0 to Sunderland a [7.8] chance. My leaning towards Stoke gets me looking at a 1-0 victory for them, priced at [11.5]. The [11.0] about a goalless draw also looks a little long a price for a match of this nature.

I must confess that even though I find success hard to come by when playing the HT/FT market, I always see it is a good challenge to pitch in and see what options can be eliminated or favoured.

My argument about this one means I'd be happy to lay Sunderland/Sunderland to a [4.0] liability, and would most likely be backing Draw/Stoke [9.6] if I was to get involved. Draw/Draw [5.4] and Draw/Sunderland [5.8] are among the other options on offer.

"We need a bit of a luck and a settled team," has been Black Cats' boss Bruce's lament this week. It's my assertion that he'll be lamenting some more come 10pm on Monday night.

Best Bets: Back Stoke @ [3.9]; Lay Jones first goalscorer @ [8.0]; Back Under 1.5 goals @ [3.2].