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Liverpool v Man United Betting Preview
James Eastham / 23 October 2009 Free Bet
Is this the best or worst possible match for Liverpool to face in the midst of a crisis? We all know the answer to that. Only a Liverpool fan in denial would argue that now's the ideal time to be facing their arch-rivals.
For the first time since he became Liverpool manager, Rafa Benitez wore the look of a beaten man after the Reds' 2-1 home defeat to Lyon on Tuesday night. Cesar Delgado's injury-time winner inflicted a fourth consecutive loss on the Merseysiders, and even the Spaniard's most ardent supporters must admit he's running out of answers.
At the time of writing, Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres are expected to miss this match, which, for me, seals the hosts' fate on Sunday afternoon. Just as I leaped on the computer the moment Gerrard limped off against Lyon in the Champions League in order to back Claude Puel's visitors to get at least a point, so I'll be backing United to gain all three the moment Liverpool's glorious duo are definitely ruled out an hour or so before kick-off.
United's price of [2.56] to win is truly extraordinary given that we've just seen how impotent Liverpool are without Gerrard and Torres and taking into account United's hunger for revenge following their 4-1 and 2-1 defeats at the hands of their bitterest rivals last season; United's work-out at CSKA Moscow on Wednesday night (1-0) was also far less wearing than I expected, leaving them fresher for this task, and the visitors arrive on a run of 10 wins and a draw in all competitions.
Sir Alex Ferguson has had the upper hand over Benitez ever since the Spaniard arrived in England. Liverpool's 2-1 win last season ended a four-match unbeaten streak for United on enemy soil, consisting of three 1-0 victories and a 0-0 draw. Fergie's record against Benitez in all competitions is seven wins, three defeats and a draw.
I expect another low-scoring encounter here, purely because Liverpool cannot afford to take many risks given that the two men most capable of dragging them back into a match whenever they fall behind will almost certainly be sitting on the sidelines. The high-scoring nature of Liverpool's games this season (seven of their nine league fixtures have had over 2.5 goals) - means the price on under 2.5 goals - [1.79] - is bigger than normal. That's excellent value considering the recent scorelines between the two sides.
Another price that looks too big is Man Utd to keep a clean sheet at [3.2]. Rio Ferdinand may have had the jitters recently but the return of Edwin van der Sar has brought some stability at the back. Gerrard and Torres have scored 50% of Liverpool's 22 league goals this season, so if they're unavailable, United's chances of keeping a clean sheet will dramatically increase.
Finally, in-running punters should look out for a late goal. All four of Liverpool home games and three of United's four away games have featured a goal from the 75th minute onwards this season. In a game that's likely to be close and where so much is at stake, expect both teams to battle until the very end.
Recommended bets:
Man Utd to win at Liverpool @ [2.56]; Man Utd to keep a clean sheet @ [3.2]; under 2.5 goals @ [1.79].
