Ed Nicholson / 27 January 2009 Free Bet

Portsmouth v Aston Villa

Portsmouth are sliding down the Premiership table and lost to Swansea at Fratton Park in the FA Cup last weekend. They take on an Aston Villa side who, importantly for this column, will still be without Ashley Young.

Portsmouth's last three home games have been that 0-2 defeat to Swansea, a 1-4 thrashing at the hands of a previously goal shy West Ham and a 0-3 defeat to Newcastle.

However, one thing that manager Tony Adams has proved in his short time as manager at Portsmouth is his ability to get this team to defend at all costs after a heavy or disappointing peformance.

When Portsmouth travelled to the Emirates I was taken by the side's negative defensive outlook and performance. Indeed, Adams said that his team would be concentrating on defence a week prior to that fixture.

Given the poor results at home recently I feel Portsmouth's first priority on Tuesday night will be to defend and not to concede an early goal.

Portsmouth have scored just 14 goals at home all season, while they have conceded 17 times. Villa meanwhile have the reputation of being an aggressive, attacking side when playing away from Villa Park. But they have participated in only 6/11 over 2.5 goal games this season on the road - and two of their last four matches have been 0-1 victories (against Hull and West Ham). In fact, Aston Villa have only created 10 shots on target in total during their last three away games.

Portsmouth will be missing the influential Niko Krancjar and Richard Hughes. Peter Crouch remains an important player for Pompey; he has scored 13 league goals, but the next top scoring Portsmouth player is on just two league goals for the season.

In this fixture last term (15th March) both sides played 4-4-2 formations, and there were two red cards. It should be noted that the game came at a time when Villa were not in the best of form - they failed to win a game in March - while Portsmouth were playing well; they had won nine of their eleven matches between February and the second week in April.

Recommendation

I feel Portsmouth will play this tight and I see a low scoring contest at Fratton Park. Portsmouth have been creating chances in front of their own fans, but this Villa side are well versed to defending and attacking on the break away from home. I had hoped for over 2.00 so will keep the bet small.

1pt Portsmouth v Aston Villa Under 2.5 goals @ [1.94].


Wigan v Liverpool

Wigan have played exceptionally well so far this term, while their home form is very good. They have won six of their 11 Premiership contests at home and would be in fifth place in a league consisting of just home results. They have scored just 12 times (fifth lowest scoring home total) but have conceded just ten (sixth best record).

Wigan take on a Liverpool side on Wednesday night that have played some hard games of late, notably against Everton, and who play Chelsea at the weekend. This will be a game that Rafa Benitez will just want to win without fuss and without injuries. For that reason, I doubt whether Steven Gerrard or Fernando Torres will play a full 90 minutes - unless the Reds are trailing past the 75 minute.

Liverpool have conceded just seven goals on the road this season (third best record) and this game has all the hallmarks of a low scoring affair.

Of the three Wigan v Liverpool contests in recent years two have finished 0-1 with the other being 0-4. Last season Liverpool played a mix between 4-5-1 and 4-4-2 formation in this fixture - with Gerrard in the hole.

Recommendation

This game just has to be marked down as a low scoring affair. The past results between the sides, the recent home and away form of the two, the impending weekend fixtures for both Liverpool and Wigan and the fact that Wigan's pitch may be cut up a little, all mean that a bet on the under 2.5 goals has to be the sensible suggestion - even at the price.

1pt Wigan v Liverpool Under 2.5 goals @ [1.74].


West Brom v Manchester United

Both sides have a number of injured players missing for this fixture, and although Sir Alex Ferguson has 12 players missing, Tony Mowbray doesn't have the strength in depth that the Reds Devils can call upon and as a consequence United's top-class 'A' team should beat West Brom's patched up side.

But how does this effect the unders/overs market? First thing to say, is that if this fixture was the other way around and being played at the Theatre of Dreams I would be looking to play the unders at a big price. United will just want to come through this with three points and no further injuries.

United have not conceded a goal in over 900 minutes of Premiership football but West Brom will offer a different problem for them at 27,000 odd capacity Hawthorns.

The Baggies have a relatively decent record for a team propping up the division. If there was a league table for just home games it would show WBA in 10th place. They have won their last three matches in front of their own fans, scoring seven times - they have only failed to score at home twice this season. And given that United will have a patched up defence - Darren Fletcher may have to play at right back - there is a better than usual chance that this West Brom side will score against United at the Hawthorns. West Brom have goalscorers in form and if they do net once, especially if it is the first goal - the United will be forced to score two.

West Brom have problems at the back too with four injured centre backs already out - and Ryan Donk may be forced to play despite not being 100%.

Recommendation

Ronaldo, Berbatov and Tevez may cause havoc against an injury strewn West Brom defence. And given that the Baggies have been in goal scoring form themselves at home, this could well be a high scoring encounter.

2pts West Brom v Man Utd Over 2.5 goals [1.92].