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Premier League betting tips for Everton v Manchester City
Dan Fitch / 15 January 2010 Free Bet View Market
We like the scarf. Now what else have you got?
Recommended Bets: Back the draw @ 3.45; Back 9 and over in booking points @ 2.04; Back Landon Donovan to score @ 4.3.
Everton v Manchester City. Otherwise known as Roberto Mancini's first real test.
Mancini has got off to a perfect start at City, but whilst the likes of Stoke, Wolves and Blackburn don't quite qualify as the football-equivalent of Joe Louis' 'Bum of the Month Club', they hardly count as the Premier League's elite.
Neither at the moment, do Everton. Yet, David Moyes' side have proved themselves to be a very competitive outfit over a number of seasons and are unbeaten in their last 6 games.
This sequence saw them hold the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs to draws, which indicates that they should be able to give City a good game. Their home record is poor, having won just 3 games at Goodison Park, but at this stage last season they had won only 2 and went on to finish in fifth place.
It's not just a habit of being slow starters that has hindered Everton's progress. They have been blighted with injuries this season and will start against City without Hibbert, Rodwell, Anichebe, Distin, Jagielka and Arteta, while Yakubu and Yobo are away with Nigeria. Moyes' options were further weakened by the sale of Lucas Neill this week.
Manchester City will be without Bridge, Lescott, Ireland, Johnson and Onuoha, with Toure away with the Ivory Coast and Adebayor having been given a leave of absence. There are also injury doubts over Robinho, Richards, Santa Cruz and Wright-Phillips.
The absence of Lescott may almost be beneficial for City, considering that his presence would have guaranteed an intimidating atmosphere against his former team. Even so, I expect that Everton will be up for this and it will be interesting to see if Patrick Vieira will be selected for City, or given an easier opening assignment.
City won 2-1 at Goodison last season, which was their first victory their since 1992. Only 3 out of the last 10 meetings between the clubs broke the 2.5 goals barrier. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.89], with overs at [2.1].
When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Saha to lead the betting for Everton at around [7.5] and [3.2], with Donovan at [11.0] and [4.3]. For City, the in-form Tevez will be [7.5] and [3.2], with Bellamy at [7.5] and [3.5].
The match odds are reflective of what a tight match this should be, with Everton at [2.98], the draw at [3.45] and Manchester City at [2.62]. I fancy the draw at that price, with Everton having tied in 5 of their last 6 Premier League games and City being no stranger to the result under Mark Hughes.
A 1--1 draw is [7.2], with 2-1 to Everton at [11.5] and 2-1 to City at [10.5]. Everton are [3.7] to keep a clean sheet, with City at [3.4]. In the half-time/full-time market, Everton/Draw is [17.5], with City/Draw at [17.0].
For such a potentially volatile fixture, [4.8] for a sending off seems like good value (especially if Patrick Vieira plays). I also like the [2.04] available for 9 booking points and above, with 6-8 at [2.84] and 5 and under at [2.66].
Under Mancini's stewardship, City have got themselves back into the Champions League qualification positions. If they can come through this game without a loss, then with fixtures against Portsmouth, Hull, Bolton and Stoke to come, the [1.94] available for them to break into the top four is likely to get smaller. Are they up to it?
