James Eastham / 07 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

Recommended bets:

Chelsea v Manchester United draw @ [3.4];
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ [2.94];
the second-half to have most goals @ [2.12].

Liverpool are out of the race, Arsenal will struggle to sustain their challenge (although they're a good bet to finish second) and Sunday's opponents Manchester United are undoubtedly a weaker side than they were last season. It's Chelsea's to lose, making the [2.26] on them to claim their first Premier League crown since 2006 tempting.

They have an excellent recent record in this fixture, too: Chelsea have won four and drawn three of the last seven head-to-heads at Stamford Bridge, with United winning only one of their last 11 trips and scoring on only two of their last eight visits in all competitions.

Yet the [2.06] on Chelsea to win the game is too short for me, so I prefer the draw at [3.4]. I thought Chelsea would be nearer [2.4], so the only way I'd recommend you back them is if their price drifts nearer to the [2.4] mark after the game has kicked-off. United's poor recent record in west London is reflected in their [4.4] price.

There are no strong goals patterns. Five of the last 10 head-to-heads have had under 2.5 goals (which is available at [1.82]) and both teams have scored in four of the last 10 (both teams to score is trading at [1.85]). The most appealing goals wager is Chelsea to keep a clean sheet, something they've done in four of the last six head-to-heads and five of the last 10. It's also worth noting Chelsea's outstanding defensive record this season: they've won five out of five, keeping clean sheets in their last four outings. On the basis of those stats, the [2.94] on Chelsea keeping a clean sheet looks excellent value.

My final bet is also statistically driven. Second-half goals have dominated the games involving these sides this season: seven of Chelsea's 11 games and eight of United's 11 games (68% of all games) have featured more goals after than before the break. That pattern makes the [2.12] on the second-half having more goals a strong selection.

Jose Bosingwa is missing (knee), but Yuri Zhirkov and John Mikel Obi are both available after recovering from injury. For United, Rio Ferdinand (calf) and Ji-Sung Park (knee) are injured and Gary Neville is suspended.

Recommended bets:

Chelsea v Manchester United draw @ [3.4];
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ [2.94];
the second-half to have most goals @ [2.12].