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Premier League Betting: Sunderland v Wolves
Jaymes Monte / 26 September 2009 Free Bet View Market
Mick McCarthy will be hoping for better fortune than when he occupied the home dug out here, but does he have the team to do so?
Recommended Bets;
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94;
Back Sunderland in Bookings Match bet @ 2.0;
Back Lorik Cana to be shown a card @ 3.0
The sight of Mick McCarthy ranting and raving on the Stadium of Light touchline will send a shudder down the spine of every one of the home supporters on Sunday. But it will also serve as a massive eye opener as to how far the club have come in the three years since the Yorkshireman's departure.
When McCarthy left Sunderland in 2006 they were the laughing stock of the country and ended the season rooted to the bottom of the Premier League smashing their own record low points total in the process. It looked like the club were in freefall as protests outside the ground and 'sack the board' rallies were a common features of a Sunderland supporter's life. But a saviour came along in the shape of a tall dark Irishman named Niall and now the future looks very bright on Wearside.
The strength of Sunderland's new squad was highlighted last week at Burnley where Steve Bruce could afford to leave star striker Kenwyne Jones on the bench through choice. But they sorely missed Lee Cattermole in the middle of the park and it is still unclear as to whether he will be back in time for Sunday's clash. New signings John Mensah and Paulo da Silva made their first starts for the club in Tuesday night's Carling Cup win over Birmingham, and given the poor performances of both Anton Ferdinand and George McCartney against Burnley they could both be in line for a start on Sunday.
Both Michael Kightly and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake made their long awaited returns from injury last week. But following substitute appearances against Fulham on Saturday then starting births against Man Utd in midweek, McCarthy was quick to rule them out of the starting line-up against Sunderland. Kightly was top of last season's Championship assists chart, despite being out with a broken foot from March onwards, and Ebanks-Blake topped the scorer chart with 25 goals. They will provide a potent attacking option from the bench should Wolves need to chase the game.
Sunderland are priced at [1.77], Wolves [5.5] and the draw at [3.9] and that looks about right by my reckoning. Bruce looks to have his sights set on making the Stadium of Light a fortress this year in order to build a firm base from which to take this team forward over the next four to five years. Make no mistake about it, Sunderland are far from the finished article and Bruce is the first to admit that it will take time to implement his ideas. But Wolves will provide the sort of test which he will expect his players to pass even at this early stage of his tenure.
One clean sheet apiece from their six league games to date would suggest that we can expect to see goals between these two sides. But as we all know, the golden rule of backing over 2.5 goals is to look at whether we can rely on both teams to score. Wolves are scoring at a paltry average of 0.83 goals per game and Sunderland's new look defence was solid against Birmingham in midweek so under 2.5 goals at [1.94] has to be the value bet for me.
Talking of goals, Darren Bent continued his hot streak against Burnley last week and backing him to get on the score sheet at [2.4] will provide a decent hedging prospect against backing the under 2.5 goals.
One streak which didn't continue was Lorik Cana's run of yellow cards. Talk of him curbing his tough-tackling nature in order to avoid future suspensions seemed to have an adverse effect on his performance. If Bruce is of the same opinion as I then I expect he'll be advising his captain to revert back to playing how he knows best; it's better to have him playing at 100% 60 %of the time than at 60 % 100% of the time.
Which leads us nicely on to the bookings markets; Sunderland haven't been outscored in the yellow card department since the opening game of the season and should be backed at around [2.0] in the bookings match bet market. The two sides combine to average five bookings points per game to date, so if you can get matched on a lay of '9 points and above' at around [3.6] you'll have a good value bet.
To view a clip of betting.betfair's very own James Eastham and former Portsmouth striker Steve Claridge discussing the betting for this match click here.
This clip was produced by new sports betting community website www.BetRepublic.com
