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Premier League Betting: Why winners can afford to lose
Ralph Ellis / 06 October 2009 Free Bet View Market
Liverpool's 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge means Rafa Benitez has seen his side lose three of their first eight games. And the statisticians will tell you that no side has started that badly yet gone on to win the title since the great Manchester United team of Best, Law and Charlton back in 1967. A year later they were the first ever English side to be crowned Champions of Europe.
So, on the face of it, if you had backed the Reds to win the title then you're out of the game already. That's certainly what conventional wisdom would suggest.
But then ever since Jose Mourinho first took Chelsea to the Premier League summit in 2005, the competition has no longer been decided by the number of defeats, but by the number of wins. That was the last time that the team finishing first had lost fewer games than the runners up.
In that season, with the new found spirit forged by The Special One, Chelsea lost just once while second placed Arsenal were beaten five times. The following year Mourinho still held the trophy but with five defeats, just ahead of Manchester United who also lost five. Since then it's been United's title each season losing five games, five games and then four, while for two seasons Chelsea finished second losing three and then Liverpool were runners up losing two. What that means is that winning games is what matters, not avoiding defeat. And on that score Benitez, whose side have slid to [10.0] to be champions, has still got some hope.
The importance of winning was why Sir Alex Ferguson was in such a tetchy mood despite rescuing a point at the end of a dramatic 2-2 with Sunderland. He could be in trouble with the FA for criticising referee Alan Wiley's fitness, but his team are a bit flabby themselves without the flair of Cristiano Ronaldo. And while they will score goals they will give them away too until they get Edwin Van der Sar back in goal in place of the nervous Ben Foster.
There's no doubt Arsenal can win games - they showed that by demolishing Blackburn 6-2 despite twice trailing. Can they win them against the big clubs, though? They also have a weak spot in goal where Manuel Almunia is no better than ordinary and his current stand-in Vito Mannone showed his lack of experience yesterday.
That makes all four of the traditional big boys vulnerable, and I don't kow why you can't get better than [1.89] for a new club to finish in the Champions League places this season. We'll know more about Manchester City's credentials tonight when they've been to Aston Villa. Odds of [2.66] for them to win there are tempting, and if they do they will go into third place, three points behind leaders Chelsea with a game in hand.
Winning is even more important at the bottom of the table, where just two points separate Hull in 18th and the drop zone from 11th placed and respectable Stoke. Dutchman Vennegoor of Hesselink got his first goal to ease the pressure on Phil Brown, and the former Celtic striker has genuine quality to make Hull, current relegation favourites, worth laying at [1.69].
Meanwhile Tony Pulis's team did brilliantly to take a point in a 1-1 draw at Everton yesterday and have also logged up draws on their travels to Birmingham and Bolton so far. Yet they would have the same total if they'd lost two and won one of those games.
Oddly, while Hull are favourites to go down, Portsmouth are still the shortest price at [3.4] to finish rock bottom - where they are now despite a morale boosting single goal victory at Wolves. Again that underlines the importance of winning, because despite their awful opening to the season they are back within touching distance of safety. And it leaves you wondering who could be this year's Newcastle, the established club that's "too good to go down" until they do.
What about West Ham? A goal up at half-time against the 10 men of Fulham, they ended up rescuing a point in the 94th minute. They are a generous [7.8] for the drop despite making their worst start since 2002 when they also had five points after seven games and got relegated.
