Mike Norman / 17 October 2009 Free Bet View Market

Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted in Correct Score market @ 9.8

Also: Back Blackburn HT/Blackburn FT @ 3.1; Back El Hadji Diouf To Score @ 4.4

Four games played, four games lost, no goals scored and 14 conceded - that's how Burnley's Premier League away form reads right now. Even if your name was The Grim Reaper you'd be worried about the Latics playing anywhere but Turf Moor; so a trip to Ewood Park - even for a fierce local derby - is unlikely to change their away day fortunes.

Blackburn can be backed at [1.78] to take all three points on Sunday, Burnley are available at [5.6], whilst The Draw can be backed at [3.75].

I have to say, given Burnley's woeful away form, the [1.78] about a Blackburn victory looks very tempting, even more so when you add to the equation that Rovers have lost just once at home in the league from their last 10 encounters. But it's that dreadful away form for the visitors that I can't get away from. In all four of those defeats, Owen Coyle's men have been losing at half time, making the Blackburn/Blackburn option ([3.1]) in the Half Time/Full Time market a really tempting wager.

Ignoring the stats and concentrating completely on the likely line-ups it's still incredibly difficult for me to oppose Rovers. Only Steven Reid and Vince Grella are doubts for the game, though that shouldn't be too much of a concern given Sam Allardyce's 'Bolton' way of playing football.

Burnley have far greater injury worries, especially in midfield and attack. Chris McCann, Kevin Mcdonald and Fernando Guerrero will all be absent from the middle of the park, whilst strikers Martin Paterson and Jay Rodriquez are unavailable up front. Their defence will be at full strength however, which may well temp a few Betfairians into backing the Yes option in the Burnley Clean Sheet market - available to back at [5.5].

Local derbies are always fiercely contested games, and with the pride of Lancashire at stake here, this one should be no different. I can't remember many times recently though when the underdog has had his day (Villa beat Birmingham, Chelsea beat Fulham, United beat City for example) so I'm not at all worried about an upset in this derby.

What local derbies do increase the likelihood of however is booking and sending-offs. There won't be many players on the field noted for having a bad temper, and certainly none will be more hated than Blackburn's El Hadji Diouf. This vile man certainly knows how to get under the oppositions skin, and it doesn't have to be a local derby for me to consider a sending off when he is on the field. The fact that it is a local derby just increases the possibility. The Yes option in the Sending Off market is available to back at [4.0].

Given his talent, Diouf is just as likely to be the hero as he is the villan, which is why I think his price of [4.4] in the To Score market is definitely worth a few quid. Benni McCarthy ([2.48]) and Jason Roberts ([2.64] are likely to be in the thick of the action when it comes to scoring, but Diouf - who is likely to start out wide and drift in - is my selection in this market.

I'm undecided in the Correct Score market as I think we will have goals, but I definitely think that Any Unquoted is way overpriced at [9.8]. When you consider that in Burnley's last four away games they've conceded two, three, four then five I really can't see why for any team to score at least four in this game is so generously priced. In fact, I'm going to make it my best bet of the game.

*Blackburn v Burnley is live on Sky Sports 1 this Sunday - Kickoff 1:30pm

Tags: Blackburn Rovers, Burnley, El Hadji Diouf, Owen Coyle, Premier League, Premier League Betting, Sam Allardyce