Editor / 08 May 2009 Free Bet

Newcastle v Boro

Both sides are finding it difficult to score goals yet are conceding them. This season Newcastle have conceded 27 goals in 17 home matches - that's the third worst record of any side playing in front of their own fans. But they have only scored 21 times in the process which ranks as the 8th worst home goal scoring record in the division.

Boro meanwhile have managed just nine goals away from home all season - the worst goal scoring record of any side on their travels. They have conceded 32 times - the third worst away record in the Premier League.

But Boro tend to keep it tight away from home as their record of 9 under 2.5 goal games in 17 away matches demonstrates. Newcastle have posted just 6 under 2.5 goal encounters in 17 home matches.

The Magpies have scored just two goals in their last six matches, and Boro just four. Both sides have conceded 10 goals during this time. Over their last ten matches Newcastle average just 0.4 goals a game, Boro 0.7.

The last six head to heads have seen results of 1-1, 0-0, 2-2,0-0, 2-1 and 2-0. These games, as you would expect of local derbies, are usually low scoring affairs and given the situation the sides find themselves in, another low scoring match is envisaged.

Recommendation

A must win game for both sides means both teams will be nervous and are less likely to take early risks. With that in mind this match could be goalless for a long time which obviously increases the likelihood of fewer goals being scored. This looks a banker under 2.5 goal opportunity.

2pts Under 2.5 goals Newcastle v Boro @ [1.80]

Man Utd v Man City

With a Champions League Final place secured, United will be sure to play all their best players in this Manchester derby. And having lost 1-2 to City at Old Trafford last term, when United played poorly, I can see Sir Alex Ferguson's side putting in a big display here and most football punters are probably expecting the goals to flow, hence why "overs" is the favourite in the market.

Last season this match came in between a draw at Spurs and a 4-0 win against Arsenal on February 10th. That was City's first Premier League victory at Old Trafford against United in 14 attempts, although they had drawn on six occasions. The last six results have been 1-2, 3-1,1-1,0-0, 3-1 and 1-1.

United have scored 22 goals in their last 10 league games, while they have conceded 13. In total at the Theatre of Dreams they have scored a league best 41 times and won 15 of their 17 matches, drawing once 0-0.

City have been very poor on the road with talented players just not performing - but the belief is that these same players will rise to the occasion on Saturday afternoon. But City have scored just 17 times on the road winning just twice, losing 10 of their 17 away matches this term. They shouldn't repeat last year's heroics, but can they score a goal? I think it possible and so the over 2.5 goal option becomes a player.

Ronaldo, Rooney and Giggs are all looking good while there are goals from virtually every position on the pitch. A saver on the 2-0 is also suggested.

Recommendation

1pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd v Man City @ [1.80]
0.10pt 2-0 correct score Man Utd v Man City @ [7.0]

Arsenal v Chelsea

This game brings together both Champions League losing semi finalists and although there is still an important third place in the Premier League to play for here, you could understand if this game lacked the usual passion of an all London derby. Latest encounters at the Emirates have been low scoring affairs with a 1-0, 1-1 and 0-2 being the last three results. In fact, the Blues have only won two of their last 19 matches against the Gunners when playing away from Stamford Bridge.

With the onus on Arsenal to win this game, Chelsea would settle for a draw and a 0-0 or 1-1 is possible. With Arsenal having conceded three against United you feel that they will concentrate on getting things right at the back, while Chelsea looked very assured in defence against one of the best attacking clubs in the World on Wednesday night. I expect a low scoring contest.

Recommendation:

1pt Under 2.5 goals Arsenal v Chelsea @ 1.76