The Betfair Contrarian / 11 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

"There is consistency in Trapattoni's squad and team selection and the two words that best describe them are hard-working and organised. In contrast, France are a mess, with constant rumours of players distrusting Domenech."

Ireland are [3.5] to qualify for South Africa 2010. Here's why the luck of the Irish will see France eliminated...

Unbeaten sides always win their play-off

Over the last three World Cup qualifying campaigns, five European sides have reached the play-offs without suffering defeat and on every occasion they have gone on to qualify. Republic of Ireland didnt lose a single group game whereas France were beaten 3-1 away to Austria. In 2006, Spain and Switzerland went through their groups undefeated and were rewarded with play-off triumphs over Slovakia and Turkey. Four years earlier, Slovenia and Ireland's unbeaten runs led to victories over Romania and Iran while in 1998, Italy advanced with victory over Russia.

France don't have a head-to-head advantage

With recent form offering no reason to believe France should start booking their flights to South Africa, you would assume that they must have a dominant record against Ireland in order to be such strong favourites at [1.39]. That's not the case, however. The nations have met nine times over the last 50 years, with both winning on three occasions. In the World Cup 2006 qualifying campaign, Ireland drew in Paris showing that the away leg should hold no fear, but lost in Dublin.

There are two reasons to believe Ireland wont lose the home tie this time...

The game will take place at Croke Park

As if the confidence boost provided by never having lost a competitive game under Giovanni Trapattoni isn't enough, Ireland can also take heart from the fact they are unbeaten in nine competitive games at Croke Park, during which time Germany, Italy and Bulgaria have visited.

Les Bleus haven't been travelling well

France's 1-0 win that broke Irish hearts at Lansdowne Road in 2005 came in the middle of a run of nine competitive games unbeaten outside France. They are on no such run now, having recorded just four victories in their last 13 competitive away outings: two against mighty Lithuania and two against the even mightier Faroe Islands. The most recent triumphs against both minnows came by unacceptably thin 1-0 margins.

France are in disarray

Say what you like about the lack of talent in Trapattoni's side, where Keith Andrews is a regular starter, but there is consistency in squad and team selection and the two words that best describe them are hard-working and organised. In contrast, France are a mess, with constant rumours of players, including captain Thierry Henry, distrusting Domenech. Star man Franck Ribery is out injured, Patrick Vieira has been dropped, and they continue to rotate centre-backs. Domenech doesn't appear to have decided whether Hugo Lloris or Steve Mandanda is his number one but neither shone last weekend during Lyon and Marseille's 5-5 draw.

Historical trends favour Ireland

While France are more talented than Ireland, both nations have appeared at three of the last five World Cups. France's advantage is that the three they attended were the most recent (1998, 2002, 2006) but never in their history have they played in four consecutive World Cups. It's also intriguing that two of their last three failures to qualify were, at least partially, inflicted by a nation from the British Isles. In 1990, Scotland qualified a point clear of them after beating them 2-0 at home in their group while in 1974, Ireland won at home to France and drew away to finish above them in their qualifying group.