Ben Lyttleton / 22 December 2009 Free Bet View Market

"Spain's favourite tag is a new one for them, after years of struggling with the label of under-achievers, now they have to cope with the weight of expectation that comes with being European champions and the top-ranked team in the world."

Will we see a World Cup of firsts in South Africa next summer? Fifa president Sepp Blatter has reminded us more than once that holding the tournament in Africa is a huge boon to the continent, and of course it will make for a unique and special atmosphere next summer.

Slovakia and Serbia are the only sides to have never competed in the tournament before, while there are some welcome returns to long-time absentees like Algeria (last qualified, 1982), Honduras (last qualified, 1986) and New Zealand (last qualified, 1982). And yet for all the history in the 76-year-old competition, it has been a remarkably closed shop in terms of winners.

In 18 editions, there have only been seven different winners: two of those, England and France, have only won it once while the first winners, Uruguay, last won it in 1950. That leaves four sides that have pretty much dominated the tournament: Brazil (five-time winners), Italy (four times), Germany (three times, as West Germany) and Argentina (twice).

The price for a first-time winner of the tournament in 2010 is ([2.62]), an interesting proposition when you consider that the tournament favourites, Spain, are included in that group. Other fancied teams that bet encapsulates mainly come from Spain's half of the draw, including as they do Holland, Portugal, Ivory Coast and Cameroon. Of the teams in the other half of the draw, only Ghana and USA could be seen as possible winners, although both would consider a last-eight place as a good outcome for them.

Does that make the bet worthwhile? Well, Spain's favourite tag is a new one for them, after years of struggling with the label of under-achievers, now they have to cope with the weight of expectation that comes with being European champions and the top-ranked team in the world. However, I have pointed out elsewhere on these pages that their price to win the competition, ([5.7]), seems more based on a comfortable group containing Chile, Switzerland and Honduras, rather than the next rounds, which could see them up against Portugal or Ivory Coast and then Italy in the quarter-finals.

The problem with that first-time winner bet comes in that part of the draw: only one of three possibles who could win the competition out of Spain, Portugal and Ivory Coast are likely to make it beyond the last 16, as they will knock each other out before then. For me, that makes the ([2.62]) a little short to take seriously.

If this is the year that an African side seriously threatens to win the competition, it's unlikely to be because the conditions suit only them. The evening games in South Africa will be cold, and therefore will make no difference to sides that have most of their players at European clubs. One advantage the African sides might have is with home support ­you would expect the local supporters to back all African teams against their opposition.

But perhaps more significant than that is the fact that in January, the African sides have what is essentially a three-week mid-season preparation-camp for the World Cup at the African Cup of Nations. Of course, the World Cup teams participating in Angola will be expected to do well in the competition: but as an opportunity to bond the group, work on tactics and get used to tournament play, it is a huge advantage.

"Whatever happens at the CAN, we have to remember that this tournament is preparation for the real thing," said Cameroon cach Paul le Guen.

"Fans may find it hard to understand if we don't do well, but what matters is the World Cup, that's what we've been fighting for and we mustn't deflect from that goal."

I can see three of the six African sides getting out of the group stages and reaching the last 16. That in itself might bring in the price of the winner coming from the African Confederation, which is currently ([15.5]), and so worth a look with a view to trading out. If you're looking for a bet that gets you following a group of teams, you might be better off doing that, and taking the ([5.7]) on Spain as a safety-net.