Matthew Walton / 05 December 2009 Free Bet View Market

"What appears obvious is that most punters aren't looking beyond the group stages. The movements in the market have simply occurred as a result of those initial round of games and not on how the tournament will unfold as a result of preliminary ties."

As the dust settles on the draw for South Africa 2010, the first impression is just how little the outright winner market has changed during the 24 hours either side of the Cape Town ceremony.

Prior to the draw the top of the market had a settled appearance. Joint favourites Brazil [5.7] and Spain [5.8] led the way, England, as per usual, were falsely short at [7.8] and then came the usual suspects of Argentina [12.0], Germany [14.0] and Italy [16.5].

The likes of Holland [17.0], France [19.5], Portugal [23.0] and the Ivory Coast [25.0] completed a top ten from which, one has to assume, the eventual winner will emerge next July.

Fast forward through the draw - which even despite its welcome brevity most viewers would have also preferred to do - and the outright picture remains largely unchanged. Those ten teams all remain at the head of the market with none moving more than one place up or down in the list.

And this is the striking result of the eight group selection process, it surely must have had a bigger effect on determining of the outright winner than these new prices suggest. Or rather don't, as the case may be.

Spain, for example, have shortened to [5.7] favourites despite the fact that drawn in Group H they will face probably the toughest last 16 match against one of Group G's qualifiers - Brazil, Portugal or the Ivory Coast.

Both England, in to [7.0], and France, down to [17.0], have also contracted in the market when by virtue of being drawn in Group A (France) and Group C (England) they stand a good chance of meeting in the quarters. As such, it doesn't make sense for both to shorten on the exchange.

Likewise, Holland's placement in a very winnable Group E strongly suggests that should they win the section a last 16 opponent could quite conceivably be Italy and a quarter-final match would even more probably be against Brazil. Again a move into [16.5] for the Dutch is hard to fathom on this basis.

As for the defending champions, should Italy avoid Holland in the first knock-out round they would still be staring down the barrel, in all probability, at a last-eight match with Spain. They are now [14.0] from [16.5] to lift the trophy.

In all, six of the 10 market leaders have been supported after the draw was made, the five teams highlighted above and one other - Argentina. They are interesting to note as being drawn in Group B they stand a good chance of avoiding the likes of Brazil and England until the final and Spain through to the SF's - if anything, their movement should have been even greater than the half point shift to [11.5].

The quartet of losers are understandably the Ivory Coast, now [29.0], and Portugal, drifting to [36.0], as they must go head-to-head with Brazil in the hellish looking Group G. The favourites themselves have also lost top spot in the market, moving out to [6.4] as a result of drawing the worst possible group of all the seeded nations. Germany ([15.5]) have also suffered as a result of the draw.

What does appear obvious from the above examples is that most punters aren't looking beyond the group stages. The movements in the market have simply occurred as a result of those initial round of games and not on how the tournament will unfold as a result of preliminary ties.

Admittedly, a betting strategy which is fundamentally based upon second-guessing how a set of eight groups will all finish up is risky - to say the least - but, then again, doesn't every bet demand some degree of foresight?

As time passes, and punters do their homework on how teams will most likely fare in the group stages, there are sure to be bigger shifts in the market but by then it may be too late. The opportunity to strike the right bet, at the right price, might be gone.

Remember, the tournament might still be 187 days off but you don't have to wait nearly as long to make money on the finals.