Ben Lyttleton / 16 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

"Slovenia are a better team than many give them credit for. ­They finished ahead of the Czech Republic and Poland in qualifying and are a very disciplined and organised outfit."

Russia coach Guus Hiddink was left disappointed by his side's first-leg 2-1 win over Slovenia, mainly because one of his tactical substitutions failed to come off.

With his side two goals ahead, thanks to Everton's in-form winger Diniyar Bilyaletdinov (who team-mate Roman Pavlyuchenko compared to Pele after the game), Hiddink took off skipper Sergei Semak and brough on Vladimir Bystrov. At that stage of the game, Slovenia were pushing forward and Hiddink felt Bystrov's pace could set up a third goal and kill off the tie once and for all. That move back-fired, and, after Pavlyuchenko and Andrei Arshavin went close in the second half, Slovenia's Nejc Pecnik pulled a goal back two minutes from time to make it interesting in Maribor on Wednesday.

Slovenia's Maribor stadium does not have the passion or history of Ljubljana, where they beat Romania in a play-off to reach the 2002 World Cup, but the results have been impressive there all the same: in this qualifying campaign, Slovenia has won four of five matches, drawing the other, scoring 12 and only conceding one goal. They are a better team than many give them credit for. ­They did finish ahead of the Czech Republic and Poland in qualifying, after all, ­and, under Matjak Kek, are a very disciplined and organised outfit.

The away goal has helped them a huge amount: they only need to win 1-0 to reach South Africa, and I would expect Kek to play a cagey game to start with. If the score is goalless with 20 minutes to go, it would suit him far more than Hiddink. Only then might Slovenia start an onslaught onto the visitors' goal. Knowing that one strike would send Russia out, on the other hand, will encourage them to push forward, and with the likes of Arshavin and Yuri Zhirkov, who is not deemed ready for Chelsea but looked decent in the first leg, they may well start out like the home side.

It is far better for the home side to win a first leg 1-0 than 2-1 as that away goal can have a big impact: in the last five years of the Champions League knock-out matches, for example, 80% of home sides who won 1-0 went through while that figure drops to 62% for the 2-1 winners. That still means Russia are rightly favourites for the tie, but Slovenia's [4.3] To Qualify price does seem long. There could be one shock in these play-offs and it might come in this match.

Recommended bets:

0-0 Half-time Correct Score @ [2.4]
Slovenia To Qualify @ [4.3]