Con O'Meara / 28 March 2009 Free Bet

NFL Division 1 - Dublin v Kerry, Parnell Park, Sunday at 13.30, Live on TG4

Kerry to flush the Jacks down towards Division 2?

Following their spirited fight back against Tyrone in the league opener, Dublin [2.84] looked like a side to be reckoned with. All looked promising for Pat Gilroy and his charges after they shrugged off the cobwebs to turnover an eight point deficit before Sean Cavanagh stole the show. Cue the positive chat about a 'new look' Dublin who might just have found the extra bit they needed to challenge for Sam.

Since that, eight and five point reversals at the hands of Galway and Derry have burst that illusion. Their two-point win over Donegal and 0-9 apiece draw at Mayo were of the hard-fought rather than the superior-class variety.

Kerry [1.58] have managed to breeze through their fixtures so far, managing a two-point away victory over a Derry outfit that totally overran the Dubs in Parnell Park a week later.
Despite all the chat about Kerry only training once a week, if Kerry want to win this, they will.
O'Connor has stretched the legs of his panel in recent weeks, allowing stars like Declan O'Sullivan and Gooch put their feet up last weekend. It's hard to imagine the Dubs will enjoy the visit of a weakened side however. Of all the fixtures, it's hard to envisage the returned bainisteoir giving this one up.

On the positive side for the Metropolitans, the new-look Dublin full-back line has shown signs of promise. The duel between Denis Bastick and Kieran Donaghy could be worth the admission fee alone. Ciaran Whelan can still control the airwaves, and Bernard Brogan is showing fantastic form. If Alan and Bernard both clicked, Dublin could be in business.

With the Crokes' players back in the fold, Vaughan's free taking may help up the Dub's points haul. They'll need it because there's the feeling that the Kingdom can just drop a gear when required and, though they haven't been overly impressive against Mayo or Westmeath, they still do enough to kick on. It's unlikely that Kerry will be in benevolent form against 'the auld enemy' and expect them to relish turning the screw if the chance presents.

Dublin need the win, but they failed to overturn Mayo last weekend when the same applied.
Take the Green and Gold to put Dublin at relegation's door.

Recommendation: 6 pts on Kerry [1.58]

NFL Division 1 - Tyrone v Derry, Healy Park, Saturday at 19.30, Live on Setanta

Tyrone and Derry encounter could be tighter than a Brazilian

Tyrone [1.81] entertain their high-flying neighbours, Derry [2.36], this Saturday in a game they'll be keen to win to cement their Division One status.

After their swashbuckling 1-18 to 1-16 victory over Dublin in the league opener Croker spectacular it looked as if Tyrone were going to kick on and win games of their choosing. Not so. Their only win since was a smash and grab job against luckless Westmeath a fortnight ago.

Injuries have played their part in their stumbling League campaign, most notably the absence of Stephen O'Neill whose performance in that league opener was outrageous. In games since, Tyrone played in patches and they'll need a 70-minute performance to dent Derry's league push.

Despite their strong panel, absentees in recent weeks have included the injured Enda McGinley, the Mcmahons, and the honeymooning Brian McGuigan. With ball-players (and I'm referring to the O'Neills!) like Ryan McMenamin also missing, Tyrone have been shook. However a couple of the aforementioned figure this weekend.

Derry are in flying form, none moreso than Eoin Bradley. He has really stepped up to the mark so far this year, despite being held scoreless against Galway. With brother Paddy in hot form, Enda Muldoon looking rejuvenated, and a half-back line that attack at any opportunity, the Oak leafers may well fancy their chances of stealing the points in this one.

Ulster clashes are tough to call though and Tyrone's necessity and pride may just be strong enough to see them win out here. Losing to two Ulster sides in a fortnight is not something the Red Hands would take lightly. Mickey Harte's side usually rise to a challenge and I think they may have just enough to meet this one. It's likely to be close though so I'm going to opt for a small wager on the draw at 7.4.

Recommendation: 1 point on Tyrone-Derry draw @ [7.40]

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