Paul Krishnamurty / 12 January 2010 Free Bet View Market

"We need to rewind the clock a few months to truly recognise just how over-priced Casey is for the Race to Dubai at [17.0], for without a rib muscle injury obtained in August, Paul may well have won the inaugural race. Until then, he'd led the field a merry dance, winning three times and moving up to third place in the world rankings, only bettered by Woods and Mickelson."

As the season slowly warms up, this seems an opportune moment to review the market for the European Tour money list, the Race to Dubai. This week's South African line-up lacks Europe's very finest, but it does include a number of plausible outsiders. Most of the big-guns will be back next week for the start of the lucrative 'Gulf Swing'.

Last year's top-three head the market, all trading in single figures, and its hard to argue with that valuation. Lee Westwood appears to have progressed to a career peak, while brilliant prospects Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer can justifiably expect to make further progress in 2010. I'll be surprised if each doesn't win at least one tournament this season, and with the doubts surrounding Tiger's participation and form, the sky really is the limit in terms of their expectations in the majors.

When the race reaches its conclusion at the end of November, they will all probably still hold a mathematical chance. However, that is over ten months away, and the way these money list markets tend to pan out suggests better odds will be available at some stage. Anybody who wins these forthcoming Middle East events, or has a good run in next month's WGC Matchplay, could steal a march and assume favouritism. Many more characters beyond that 'big-three' have strong claims in those events.

Therefore, in my view the best strategy at this early stage is to look further afield, for players in double-figure quotes who could shorten up considerably over the months ahead. Nobody is worthy of stronger consideration than Paul Casey, who put up an encouraging first performance of 2010 at last week's SBS Championship.

We need to rewind the clock a few months to truly recognise just how over-priced Casey is at [17.0], for without a rib muscle injury obtained in August, Paul may well have won the inaugural race. Until then, he'd led the field a merry dance, winning three times and moving up to third place in the world rankings, only bettered by Woods and Mickelson.

Casey was injured during the opening round of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, which meant he earned nothing there, and went on to miss the USPGA and several other very lucrative late events. Even despite missing out on those huge prize funds, Casey's final race position was fifth, well ahead of other big European names such as Harrington, Garcia, Stenson and Poulter.

He came back right at the end of the season, but struggled to instantly find his touch. That's why last week's promising performance was so important. He says he's back to full fitness and is talking a good game about the new season. Those of us who backed him last year, and have legitimate reason to feel hard done by, would be mad not to take the odds on offer.

Much further down the list at around [60.0], another interesting candidate is Alexander Noren. Until recently, Noren had developed a reputation amongst golf punters as a bit of a 'talking horse'. The Swede had been widely tipped for stardom since turning pro, but repeatedly failed to deliver on the final day. That analysis deserves reconsideration after an outstanding performance to win his first title in September's European Masters, and more encouraging form afterwards.

Now he's won a title and removed that extra pressure, I expect Noren go from strength to strength. He's well suited by the sort of target golf we'll see over the next month and therefore looks like one to follow in both the short and long-term.

Race to Dubai selections:
Paul Casey @ [17.0]
Alexander Noren @ [60.0]