Steven Rawlings / 02 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

“Since 1996, Lefty has a 17.4% strike rate in February, which increases to 20% if you only count the Californian events, on that stat alone the price looks more than fair. Add to the mix the patently obvious course form and his determination to get his game back in order after last week and he pretty much picks himself.”

Some weeks I spend hours pawing through the formbook, other weeks selections seem glaringly obvious and this is one of them.

Rory McIlroy defends his one and only title at the Dubai Desert Classic but at the risk of repeating myself, he's simply too short at a single-figure price. There is possibly an argument that he's turning into a pretty good back-to-lay vehicle, as he doesn't seem to have to do an awful lot to shorten considerably, but to consider backing him as short as he is without laying any back would not be my idea of a sensible plan. He has repeatedly passed up the opportunity to double his tournament tally and is simply not trustworthy in contention.

Someone that is becoming increasingly trustworthy though is Martin Kaymer. An opening 74, in the worst of the conditions, at a venue that he hasn't fared well at before, was enough to see him out of the picture last week in Qatar. When interviewed, he said he was tired after his success in Abu Dhabi, so it was no surprise to see him fail to break 70 as he played out the week to finish 32nd. I'm pretty sure we'll see a much different Kaymer this week.

Not only will he be better rested but he's also playing a track that clearly suits. In his two outings here so far, he was second in 2008 and fourth last year. I can't see any reason why he isn't the favourite to win this week and was more than happy to take [12.5].

That was going to be it, but the forecast now suggests that those with a late-early draw look likely to have a bit of an advantage. With Kaymer on the other side of the draw I thought I'd look for another pick and have plumped for Simon Dyson.

I thought him a tad short at the start of the week but he's since drifted to an eye-catching price, and if the forecast is right, and the wind does drop on Thursday afternoon, he's a very fair price.

Selections:

Martin Kaymer @ [12.5]
Simon Dyson @ [75.0]

At the Northern Trust Open, Phil Mickelson attempts to make it three in a row at the Riviera Country Club, and he should be going for four in a row! He was in pole position in 2007 before losing out to Charles Howell III in a play-off.

It was a torrid start to his season last week. Not only was his play scrappy, but he was accused, somewhat harshly, of cheating by Scott McCarron, over his use of a 20 year-old Ping-Eye 2 wedge, a square faced golf club that isn't banned in the States or Mexico, but is elsewhere, following the latest rule change. It's a complicated, and dare I say boring issue, but one thing's for sure, it didn't help him last week.

I'm more interested in his form and a desperate attempt to lift his game by flying in coach Butch Harmon prior to the last round last week didn't work, but you could argue trying to tweak his swing mid event wasn't a great idea anyway. I would bet there's been some serious work put in since though and I fully expect him to play considerably better this week.

Whenever someone's trading at a single-figure price to win a golf tournament you have to have a pretty compelling argument to back them and many punters will be swerving Lefty after last week's performance, but not this one.

Since 1996, Lefty has a 17.4% strike rate in February, which increases to 20% if you only count the Californian events, on that stat alone the price looks more than fair. Add to the mix the patently obvious course form and his determination to get his game back in order after last week and he pretty much picks himself.

My only other pick is Riviera legend, Fred Couples, who's been coming here just about every year since the early 80's. He's won the event twice, in 1990 and '92, and has a string of top ten finishes to his name. Now plying his trade on the Champions Tour having just turned fifty, he's still competitive - he found only Tom Watson too good on his debut two weeks ago. He was 3rd here last year and 4th in '06. Old 'Boom Boom' may not have the nerve to get over the line for one last hoorah but I was more than happy with the [120.0] I took on Monday and I'm quite surprised he's drifted since.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [8.2]
Fred Couple @ [120.0]

I'll post an update at the halfway stage early on Saturday morning.