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Betting trends for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham
Tony Keenan / 01 February 2010 Free Bet View Market
Solwhit is favoured with punters for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair and now trades at 5.8.
THE IRISH CHALLENGE
7 Irish winners since 1998 means this is the best championship race for the raiders and our strike-rate relative to number of runners in the last 10 renewals is pretty impressive; from 35% of the runners in that period, we've had 6 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 thirds. Strangely enough, the big two Irish trainers have struggled with Willie Mullins' 6 runners finishing unplaced and Noel Meade having just one place from 8 attempts.
A large percentage of this year's entries are trained in Ireland (21 of 34 entries) with the main challengers being Solwhit and Go Native. Both are prolific winners but have major trends negatives to overcome which we'll get to later.
AGE
Recent results suggest that 5yos are capable of holding their own - Katchit won the 2008 title while both placed horses last year were five. However, Katchit's win came in a weak renewal and he was the first 5yo winner since the brilliant See You Then in 1985. The percentage call is to oppose them and I'd be against the main 5yo challenger Zaynar at the prices; he looks very tight on what he's achieved and has a similar profile to Detroit City who flopped badly when sent off as 6/4 favourite in 2007.
Older horses have a similarly poor historical record with just 2 winners older than eight since 1982 which is a negative against Sublimity who bids to regain the prize he won three years ago. 7yos and 8yos do best on the numbers - from 36% of the runners in the last 10 renewals, they've had 7 winners and 7 places and Go Native looks the main player from those age groups.
FESTIVAL FORM
Previous form not just at the track but at the Festival is paramount here. Of the last 10 winners, all had finished in the first four at the March meeting with 8 being previous Festival winners. The importance of meeting form is also seen in the placed horses with 12 of the 20 runners to hit the frame here since 1999 having done so at the Festival before.
We should accord particular respect to form from the previous year's Festival. Of the last 10 winners, only Hors La Loi III in 2002 didn't run at the meeting 12 months beforehand (which would have been difficult as the 2001 fixture was abandoned) with 5 winners running the Champion Hurdle and 1 each running the Triumph, Supreme, County and Neptune Investments Hurdles.
The Champion has thus been the best guide though last year's renewal looks a poor one with just one of the first eleven home winning a hurdle race subsequently. The Supreme tends not to be a good pointer, at least in terms of the winner of that race with no horse doubling up since 1971, though last year's renewal looks hot with both the first and second, Go Native and Medermit, having done well this term.
All of this would suggest that current favourite Solwhit has a lot on his plate having not yet run at Cheltenham, never mind at the Festival. This will be seen as a chink in his armour by many but my suspicion is that his grinding style of racing will suit the track.
RECENT FORM & TRIAL RACES
Ideally you want a horse that not only ran well last time but won its most recent start; 22 of the last 26 winners met this requirement. In terms of English trial races, the Boylesports Hurdle run at Cheltenham's December meeting (won by Khyber Kim) and the Kingwell Hurdle (due to be run at Wincanton on February 20th) have been the best guides, each throwing up 3 winners since 2002.
Interestingly, the two Grade 1 hurdles run at 2 miles in Britain other than this race have given little help in finding the winner. Kribensis was the last Christmas Hurdle winner to double up here in 1990 and while Punjabi struck a blow for the Fighting Fifth last term, it was not thrown up many winners. Go Native has won both races this season.
In Ireland, the Leopardstown Grade 1s are by the best guides. Istabraq (3 times), Hardy Eustace (twice) and Brave Inca all prepped in either or both the December Festival Hurdle and the Toshiba Champion Hurdle before winning this and Solwhit won both this term.
THE MARKET
The betting hasn't been much help here with the last 3 winners all returned at double-figure prices and both Hardy Eustace (for his first win) and Hors La Loi III in 2002 being difficult to find too. In what looks a very open year, past trends certainly shouldn't put anyone off backing a bigger priced runner.
IN SUMMARY
- Irish runners have a fine record
- Be wary of 5yos and 9yos and older
- Concentrate on horses with Festival form (particularly from last year's meeting)
- Last time out winners do very well
- The Leopardstown Grade 1 hurdles have been a good guide but not so the Christmas Hurdle
- The market has been of little assistance
