Recent entries in Horse Racing
Betting trends for the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Leopardstown
Tony Keenan / 02 February 2010 Free Bet View Market
Cooldine heads the early markets, priced around 3.05.
"Proven class and stamina reign here. All of the last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1 and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least twice at the top level."
TRAINERS
Willie Mullins seems to enjoy success in everything these days but this must be just about his favourite race in the calendar; from 13 runners since 2000, he has had 5 winners, 2 runners-up and a third. Cooldine is the obvious one from Closutton and has been heavily supported in recent days.
The English challenge has to be respected too. Despite rarely sending their A-team across the water, the second-string has tended to be good enough with the 7 recent raiders finishing:1612252. The Listener and What A Friend have already taken big Irish staying chases this season and Money Trix will bid to uphold that record.
AGE
This angle of little use with every age group between seven and twelve registering at least one winner in the last ten years. Eight- and nine-year-olds do best with 6 winners and 5 seconds between them though they also have the biggest proportion of runners.
RECENT FORM & PREPARATION
With 8 of the last 11 winners making the first three last time and the 3 exceptions falling, you really want to be with a contender that's firing on all cylinders. The likely market leader Cooldine has to overcome the negative of being pulled up last time when pulling too hard in the Lexus Chase.
The Lexus, run over course-and-distance at the Christmas Festival, is the pre-eminent trial race with 7 of the last 8 winners, including the last 5, running there finishing:F321F13. This season's winner What A Friend bypasses the Hennessy in favour of later targets but the form is likely to be well-represented by the second Money Trix and third Joncol while also-rans Notre Pere and Cooldine are also entered. Interestingly, the clear form pick Money Trix is only third choice in the betting currently despite the others having ground to claw back on him.
Of the last 12 winners, only 2009 victor Neptune Collonges, who fell when looking a likely winner in his previous start in the Lexus, had yet register a win at the track while 7 of the last 12 winners had won at least thrice at the track. Joncol and Money Trix are both yet to win at Leopardstown.
RATINGS
The official handicapper's view has been a cracking guide here with 10 of the last 12 winners having a mark of at least 160 and one of the exceptions being Beef Or Salmon in 2003 who while yet to be given a rating had run to a mark in the low 160s in winning the Lexus on his previous start. Backing the top-rated horse alone has proved a smart strategy; if you'd done so you would have hit on 7 of the last 10 winners and made a profit of 8.3 points to a level stake. This year's top-rated runners are Joncol and Notre Pere on 163, swiftly followed by Schindlers Hunt (161) and Cooldine (160).
GRADED FORM & STAMINA
Proven class and stamina reign here. All of the last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1 and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least twice at the top level. In this year's renewal, Money Trix is a leading contender without a Grade 1 success while Joncol, J'Y Vole and In Compliance have won one with Cooldine and Notre Pere top the pile with two apiece.
Since 1998, only Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles which could be viewed as a hole in the case for Joncol, who is yet to win beyond 2m4f and shaped like a non-stayer over this trip last time, though you could argue that he had far too much use made of him on that occasion.
THE MARKET
The form is in the book at this stage of the season so it's no surprise to find that the market is ultra-efficient in the Hennessy; all bar one of the last 12 winners came from the front two in the betting while only 2 winners since 1998 has been returned any bigger than 3/1. Cooldine and Joncol look set to head the market this time.
IN SUMMARY
- Note runners trained by Willie Mullins or in England
- The Lexus Chase is by far the best guide
- The top-rated runner has an excellent record
- Look for a proven stayer with at least one Grade 1 win
- Concentrate on the front end of the market
