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Breeders' Cup back and lay betting tips
Simon Rowlands / 04 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

Zensational works out at Santa Anita
"...the way I look at it nothing will live with Zensational early on, and he should have enough in reserve to hold on. He deserves to go off shorter..."
This weekend sees the 26th running of The Breeders' Cup, the self-styled "Thoroughbred World Championships".
The event has thrown up numerous legendary races since its inception, including: Lester Piggott's win on Royal Academy in the Mile in 1990, a few days after the jockey's release from jail and a few days before his 55th birthday; Dayjur's sensational defeat in the Sprint the same year (he jumped a shadow near the line when victory seemed in his grasp); and Tiznow's tremendous duel with Giant's Causeway in the Classic in 2000.
It seems long odds on that this year's Breeders' Cup, which returns to Santa Anita in California, will produce many an epic moment of its own. But for many it provides, above all, a rare opportunity to test "our" best horses against "theirs" (with "our" meaning European on this one-off occasion), and as punters to put our money where our mouths are.
With that in mind, I have had a look at some of the showpiece events from a betting point of view, assisted by Timeform's excellent Breeders' Cup racecard (lay bets indicate the number of points I am prepared to lose).
Breeders' Cup Marathon (20:35 Friday): the distance of 1m 6f is likely to play to the European's strengths, even if the Pro-Ride surface may not. Mastery and Father Time, the St Leger first and fourth, look too short, and a place lay of the latter nearer the time makes plenty of appeal. While Father Time is able, he looks far from willing, and it is easy to see a long journey and unfamiliar circumstances getting to him at the end of a long season. Father Time 4 pts place lay.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (22:23 Friday): there looks to be little between the European Midday and the American Forever Together on form, but the latter has home advantage and looks the bet to follow up last year's success. Her recent defeat was probably down to soft ground. Forever Together 2 pts win.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (18:45 Saturday): Viscount Nelson has arguably already got to the sort of level required to win this in an ordinary year and could still improve back at 1m. I prefer him to the other European runners and reckon he is worth siding with for a place against some decent US runners. Viscount Nelson 2 pts place.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (19:23 Saturday): 14 runners are more than you usually get for sprints in the US and the extended 6f trip could take some getting. With that in mind, I am keen on Diamondrella, a filly who has come late to win her last seven starts on turf. Odds of [7.0] at the time of writing look big. Diamondrella 2 pts win.
Breeders' Cup Sprint (20:10 Saturday): a strong pace may set things up for a closer like Gayego, but the way I look at it nothing will live with Zensational (pictured) early on, and he should have enough in reserve to hold on. He arguably deserves to go off at around [2.0] (evens) but bigger prices are available. Zensational 4 pts win.
Breeders' Cup Mile (21:28 Saturday): they won't see the way Goldikova goes if she is back to her best in this, and odds of [2.4] are fairly tempting. However, I prefer to oppose Zacinto in the place market. While he is a pretty good horse, sectionals suggest that he was flattered behind Rip Van Winkle last time and he could well miss the first three in this. Zacinto 3 pts place lay.
Breeders' Cup Classic (23:45 Saturday): his second to Sea The Stars in the Eclipse in July shows that Rip Van Winkle is out of the top drawer, but he has an awful lot on his plate against the unbeaten Zenyatta and a legion of other good US horses, from a wide draw and on his first run away from turf, even if his now-customary injury scare comes to nothing. Much as I would like to see him (and Mastercraftsman) win for the good of Sea The Stars' reputation, he looks opposable at the odds. Rip Van Winkle 3 pts win lay.
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Saturday also marks the end of the British turf Flat season at Doncaster, and it is an occasion to which I will be paying more than usual attention, as my horse One Way Or Another runs in the curtain-closer.
His mark has gone up 4 lb for his narrow defeat at Newmarket, and he looks like having a lot of rivals, but in every other respect I am very hopeful. A strongly run seven furlongs on softish ground could prove to be ideal for One Way Or Another, he has been working well (though it's fair to say he has hardly ever been known to work badly) and the services of Jamie Spencer have been obtained.
Spencer is not everyone's cup of tea, and it is fair to say he makes the odd mistake, but he can be absolutely brilliant on hold-up horses like One Way Or Another, and I reckon we need the chance of that little bit extra to turn a creditable fourth or fifth into an unforgettable win. My fingers are firmly crossed!
