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Ante-post betting and odds for the Queen Mother Champion Chase
Eoin Ryan / 28 January 2010 Free Bet View Market
Master Minded drifted in the betting following a lacklustre performance in November - but it has since transpired that he had a fractured rib.
"The reality is that if Master Minded gets to Cheltenham and is even 90% right, he’ll probably win."
The Champion Chase market is yet again dominated by the reigning champion, Master Minded, though it is perhaps a more intriguing market this year because of his injury problems, season to date.
Paul Nicholls' star was trading around the [2.0] mark on Betfair before his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in mid November and a lacklustre performance there was later attributed to a stress fracture of a rib. On the easy list since then, Master Minded has traded as high as [4.5] on Betfair in recent weeks but his price is now firmly back on a downward trajectory and he currently trades at [2.66].
The reality is that if Master Minded gets to Cheltenham and is even 90% right, he'll probably win. In a recent update, Paul Nicholls sounded confident that they will be able to get him to the race in good shape. Nicholls also supplies the second favourite in Twist Magic, but Cheltenham hasn't been a happy hunting ground for this fellow.
On his day, he is a real force over this trip but consistency has been a problem throughout his career and I find it difficult to make a compelling case for him. Of more interest to me are Forpadydeplasterer, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe.
The latter probably won't run (will contest the Arkle Chase) but seems set for the very top of the 2 mile chasing division in due course. Big Zeb is hugely talented and on his day could really put it up to Master Minded; as he did at Punchestown last April. His problem remains his jumping and an abject display in the Tingle Creek is hard to forget.
Forpady' at around [10.0] appeals to me as a value play at this stage. Tough and genuine and a sound jumper in the main, he's a course winner already and will appreciate the likely better ground at Cheltenham. If the favourite is under par on the day I think Tom Cooper's charge is best placed to capitalize.
