Tony Keenan / 25 January 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Outside of the exceptional Moscow Flyer in 2002, you have to go back to 1990 to find the last winner of this race that was older than seven so it should pay to concentrate on the younger horses."

THE IRISH CHALLENGE
Forpadydeplasterer did his bit for the Irish record in the Arkle last year but on the whole our record here is pretty ordinary - since 1996, we've had just 2 winners and 2 placed horses. Our top trainers in particular seem to struggle with neither Willie Mullins nor Noel Meade managing a place from 6 tries each in the last 10 renewals. The combination of decent ground and a strong pace seems to catch the raiders out and puts pressure on their jumping; almost all Irish graded novice chases are small-field affairs run on deep ground while only once in the last 10 renewals has there been a single-figure field in the Arkle.
Interestingly, and perhaps surprisingly in light of the above statistics, the Irish have the front two in the ante-post betting for this year's race in Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe. Both will bid for glory without the help of the traditional springboard of the Irish Arkle (the last 7 Irish-trained winners of this race all ran in the Leopardstown race), won this year by An Cathaoir Mor, stable-mate of Sizing Europe, who is unlikely to run unless the ground is soft.

TRAINERS
British-trained runners have won 19 of the last 23 renewals of this 2-mile novice championship and the bigger stables have a particularly enviable record; between them, the powerhouse yards of Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Martin Pipe and Nicky Henderson have won 9 of the last 12 runnings. Nicholls has a leading fancy this year in Tataniano while Henderson seems to have any number of options from his seemingly bottomless pit of novice chase talent. At this stage the other main English challenger is Somersby whose trainer Henrietta Knight who sent out the runner-up in 2003 and also had subsequent triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate as favourite for the abandoned 2001 renewal.

AGE
Outside of the exceptional Moscow Flyer in 2002, you have to go back to 1990 to find the last winner of this race that was older than seven so it should pay to concentrate on the younger horses. Whether you want to quite as young as a five-year-old is hard to know; they had an excellent record a while back when in receipt of a generous 5lb allowance but that has been removed for the last 2 renewals, in which just one of their number has managed a place, and that was the mare Kruguyrova who had a sex allowance.
At eight and nine respectively, both Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee have age stats to overcome but it must be noted that the last-named already knocked such a trend on the head when winning the Supreme as a 7yo in 2008.

HURDLES FORM
Many punters throw hurdles form out the window when looking at chases and while there are times when such an approach pays dividends class has tended to out in the Arkle. It certainly did last year when Forpadydeplasterer, the only Grade 1-winning hurdler in the field, landed the spoils and 9 of the last 10 winners of the race have been rated at least 140 over sticks. The main players in this year's event all have the requisite ability over smaller obstacles with Captain Cee Bee rated 152, Sizing Europe 160, Somersby 143 and Tataniano 147.

RECENT FORM & PREPARATION
You can safely oppose anything that ran poorly last time; only 2 of the last 23 winners of the Arkle failed to make the first two last time with the exceptions being Moscow Flyer who fell and Contraband who was a close third in Grade 2 under a penalty on testing ground. Respect consistent, multiple winners; 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least twice over fences while just 1 of the last 10 winners finished out of the first two in any of their completed chase starts.
As so often at this meeting, horses with course form should be upgraded with 7 recent winners having made the first four at the track. The Independent Newspapers' Novice Chase, run over course-and-distance at the Open Meeting, has been a decent guide for all the only Azertyuiop has doubled up in recent years; Contraband came second in that race before winning while the likes of Fair Along and Seebald won the November race before placing here. Tataniano won the most recent renewal. The Henry VIII Novice Chase, run on the Tingle Creek undercard, has been another reasonable pointer with 2 of the last 5 winners taking both races and Somersby put up an impressive jumping performance to take that event last December.

THE MARKET
Despite the poor record of outright favourites - just 2 jollies have won since 1991 - the market tends to be a pretty accurate guide here. All of the last 9 winners could be found in front five in the betting and outsiders tend not to figure with only two horses priced bigger than 14/1 placing in the past 10 renewals.

IN SUMMARY:
- Be wary of the Irish
- The top English trainers have dominated recent renewals
- Oppose horses older than seven
- Concentrate on horses rated 140 or higher over hurdles
- Look to in-form, consistent, multiple winners
- Ignore outsiders

Tags: Arkle Chase, Cheltenham 2010, Cheltenham Trends, Tony Keenan