Wayne Bailey / 22 February 2009 Free Bet

Paul Nicholls' Tatenen is still the ante-post favourite, but punters have gone cool on him lately and his price is now trading around [6.2], a marked drift from the [3.70] on offer before Christmas. He suffered a short-head defeat to Follow The Plan at Leopardstown over the festive season, but it's fair to say that the pace didn't suit and I'm surprised to see punters let his odds rise so much. Breeding is an angle that's often overlooked in the Arkle, and it's worth noting that French Bred horses have won seven of the past fourteen renewals - despite representing just 25% of all horses, so Tatenen has a strong advantage in that arena.

Follow The Plan couldn't build on his Leopardstown success however, and was third to Golden Silver and Forpadydeplasterer in the Irish Arkle back in January. If I was to offer an excuse, I'd suggest the ground didn't suit that day - but punters aren't buying it and he now trades at [30.0] or thereabouts having hit a low of [12.0] at one stage in the market. Golden Silver is not attracting much attention either at [30.0], but there's been some renewed interest in Forpadydeplasterer who's now fairly solid at [12.50].

Calgary Bay is an interesting mover. There was a fair bit of money traded on Henrietta Knight's six-year-old at [10.0], but his price is getting ever closer to Tatenen and the best odds you can get as I write are [7.0] - despite the fact that he was beaten last-time-out at Ascot. However, keen form students will know that the gelding has never won going right handed, so his second place to Panjo Bere that day can be seen as positive. If the ground is good at the festival, he looks a strong contender.

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