Tony Keenan / 22 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Since the bumper was first run in 1992, 14 of the 17 winners have been trained in Ireland which makes it by far the best race for the Irish at the meeting."

THE IRISH CHALLENGE
Since the bumper was first run in 1992, 14 of the 17 winners have been trained in Ireland which makes it by far the best race for the Irish at the meeting. In the last 10 renewals, Irish-trained horses have made up 42% of the total runners and have had 8 winners and 9 places. Our raiders have been particularly dominant in recent years - Ireland had the first eight in 2009, six of the first seven in 2008 and the first five in 2007 - and to put it simply you'd be mad back a horse trained anywhere else.

TRAINERS
Willie Mullins is clearly the dominant force here with 3 winners and a third since 1999. He's had by far the greatest number of runners in that period - 35 in total, more than three times that of any other trainer - but he also won the race in 1996, 1997 and 1998 which is an amazing record for what is almost always a maximum runner field affair. His current bumper team appears to lack the depth of previous years though Day Of A Lifetime was an impressive winner at Fairyhouse over the weekend and is currently the shortest-priced Mullins runner.
Edward O'Grady is the only other trainer to have won the race more than once (in 1994 and 2002) while of the home trainers both Nicky Henderson and Jonjo O'Neill have had a pair of runners-up from 8 and 11 runners respectively in the last 10 runnings.

AGE
This race is open to horses aged between four and six but the youngsters have struggled to land a blow with Dato Star being the only four-year-old to win the race in 1995. They've had 32 runners (15% of the total) since 1999 but only 3 have made the frame.
Five-year-olds out-perform six-year-olds with 7 winners to 3 winners in the last 10 renewals but a look beyond the raw figures suggests that there is little between the two age groups; over twice as many five-year-olds have taken their chance and I find it hard to split them.

MARES
The few fancied mares to run here have tended to do well; Total Enjoyment and Mucklemeg won the race in 2004 and 1994 respectively while Refinement was a good second 6 years ago. The likes of Morning Supreme in 2009 and Shirley Casper in 2007 just missed out on hitting the frame at big prices so the 7lb sex allowance seems to provide a decent advantage. Araucaria looks the leading mare in this year's race and it could be significant that her trainer John Kiely, who knows a thing or two about handling the fairer sex and saddled a one-two in the Aintree mares' bumper last season, has been fulsome in his praise for the daughter of Accordion.

EXPERIENCE
My strong preference here would be for a battle-hardened type with 8 of the last 10 winners having had a least 3 bumper runs. The 2 exceptions were trained by Willie Mullins (in fact, 5 of his 6 Champion Bumper winners had won their only start beforehand) so I'm prepared to ignore this pattern with regard to the Closutton brigade but it has to be considered a negative for runners trained elsewhere.
Similarly, 7 of the last 8 winners had won at least 2 bumpers; defying a penalty in this sort of race isn't easy so it marked such horses down as above-average. Neither of the Dermot Weld-trained pair Elegant Concorde and Hidden Universe who currently head the market have won more than once with the first-named having run green on his most recent outing. It would also be a concern that Weld has trained just one Festival winner in his career and that back in 1990.

PREPARATION & RECENT FORM
Last-time-out winners are the way to go here with 8 of the past 9 winners winning their most recent start. It's a similar story with the placed runners as 16 of 20 horses to come second or third had won last time.
Coming into the race fresh can also be an advantage as national hunt flat races can be quite attritional for horses in the early stages of their career. 5 of the last 9 winners had not run in the calendar year while the same comment applies to the last two runners-up.
With bumpers being run on almost every Irish card and many of those in England it's understandably difficult to pinpoint key races though it's worth looking out for horses that won winners bumpers at Naas around February. Hairy Molly, Missed That and Pizarro all took such races prior to their wins here while Rite Of Passage and Zaarito placed off similar preparations. A hot looking bumper was due to be on the abandoned Naas card on Sunday and it should be worth watching out for if rescheduled as the likes of Araucaria and Tavern Times were declared.

THE MARKET
Despite the race attracting some very big fields (fewer than 23 runners only once in the last 10 renewals), the market has been a decent guide with 8 of the last 9 winners coming from the front six in the betting.

IN SUMMARY:
- Concentrate on the Irish runners, especially those trained by Willie Mullins
- Four-year-olds tend to struggle
- Experienced, multiple winners do best (excepting Willie Mullins runners)
- Respect fresh horses
- The market has been a good predictor of success

Tags: Champion Bumper, Cheltenham 2010, Cheltenham Trends, Tony Keenan