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Cheltenham trends for the Ryanair Chase
Tony Keenan / 26 February 2010 Free Bet View Market
Poquelin is the current ante-post favourite and trades at [5.5] on Betfair.
"Voy Por Ustedes is top-rated this year on 168 but while he is well-suited by the course he simply hasn’t fired this season while the next pair on 166, Deep Purple and Planet Of Sound, could well be flat-track specialists."
THE IRISH CHALLENGE
No joy yet for the Irish with our 11 runners producing a runner-up and 2 thirds. To be fair, a couple of those were unlucky - Mossbank was set too much to do when second in 2008 while Rathgar Beau would surely have gone close but for ploughing through the last fence in the inaugural running in 2005. Tranquil Sea looks the main Irish challenger this time with last year's third Schindlers Hunt and J'Y Vole also likely runners.
TRAINERS
Paul Nicholls has an outstanding record in the open Grade chases at this meeting - since 1999, he has won the Champion Chase and Gold Cup four times each - and the Ryanair is no different. From 8 runners since 2005, he's had a pair of winners and a third with those good efforts achieved with 3 different horses. Current favourite Poquelin is his main hope this year.
Backers of Barbers Shop can take encouragement from the fact that Nicky Henderson sent Fondmort out to win and place in the race while Phillip Hobbs who trains Planet Of Sound had a 20/1 runner-up with his only runner.
AGE
There's no angle here with the win-and-place horses being spread evenly across all age groups between six and ten. All 8 of the runners older than ten have finished unplaced.
RATINGS
All 5 winners were rated at least 152 while the 10 placed horses had a mark of 149 at worst; with this in mind, a rating of about 150 is the basic class threshold for the likely winner. This is not to say that you should concentrate on the top-rated horse as no such animal has won - the key here is finding the horse that is best suited by the conditions, not with the most raw ability. Both Impek and The Listener were clear on the ratings when sent off as favourite in 2006 and 2008 respectively but neither was ideally suited by the course and never looked liked winning.
Voy Por Ustedes is top-rated this year on 168 but while he is well-suited by the course he simply hasn't fired this season while the next pair on 166, Deep Purple and Planet Of Sound, could well be flat-track specialists.
KEY RACES & COURSE FORM
The early season course-and-distance handicap chases, the Paddy Power and the Boylesports, have been much the best guides. 4 of the 5 winners had run in the Paddy Power in the same season of their victory, finishing:1F42, while 3 had run in the Boylesports, finishing:3B2. The main exception was Our Vic in 2008 but he had won the Paddy Power two seasons previous along and put numerous good efforts over course-and-distance while 2006 winner Fondmort had won both big handicaps earlier in his career. This season's Paddy Power was won by Tranquil Sea while the runner-up Poquelin went one better when taking the Boylesports the following month.
To develop the theme, course form has been pretty important with all 5 winners having won at least once around Prestbury Park with 4 of the 5 runners-up having done likewise. Barbers Shop, Schindlers Hunt and Planet Of Sound are the main hopes yet to register a course win.
The previous season's renewal has been a fair guide with both Fondmort and Our Vic improving on placed efforts to win the following season (Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt made the frame in 2009) but be wary about supporting the winners of the obvious trial races away from Cheltenham. The 5 winners of the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon to take their chance have finished:66535 while the 3 Ascot Chase winners have come:249 and the form not working out is probably down to those tracks having vastly different configurations to Cheltenham. Of the 5 winners of the Ryanair, only Fondmort had even taken in one of these races in the season of his victory. Deep Purple won this season's Peterborough Chase while Monet's Garden won the Ascot Chase.
THE MARKET
Only 1 winning favourite thus far but the market has been accurate; all 5 of the winners came from the front three in the betting while 7 of the 10 placed horses were returned at single figure prices.
IN SUMMARY:
- Paul Nicholls has the best record
- Focus on horses rated 150 or higher
- Give maximum respect to the Paddy Power and Boylesports form though be wary of the Peterborough and Ascot Chase winners
- Course winners have dominated
- The market has been a good predictor of success
