Wayne Bailey / 12 April 2009 Free Bet

The Irish Grand National takes place on Easter Monday, but I reckon Sunday's Gold Cup (3.45) is the cracker of the festival, and the 2009 renewal looks fiercely competitive.

Trafford Lad and Jayo will immediately catch the eye of the stats fans as almost all winners in the past decade had a course and distance victory under the belt before competing. However, Noel Meade is keen on Aran Concerto and he's not the type of trainer to talk bull. A few years back, he described the horse as one of the best he's ever trained, but it hasn't been plain sailing for the gelding at home and his return to racing was put off a number of times. Meade is having a poor year by his normal standards and personally, I'd be cautious about backing his horses until he's firing on all cylinders once again. Perhaps his time will come at Punchestown?

But there's no point sitting on the fence and I'm going to side with Trafford Lad - a horse I'm convinced we haven't seen the best of just yet. My betting.betfair.ie colleague Eoin Ryan put me wise to the seven-year-old before he won the Drinmore at this course in November, and the form has been franked as the horse he beat that day was a certain Forpadydeplasterer, who went on to win the Arkle at Cheltenham. Trafford Lad wasn't disgraced when that same horse finished ahead of him at Leopardstown last-time-out along with Cooldine - as it later turned out that his foot was bruised and he wasn't quite running to form. We've to take it on trust that Sheehy has him back to his best, but if that is the case, [3.2] could be a steal.

Earlier on, I'm looking forward to watching Oligarch Society, a six-year-old with a great future ahead - (2.45) and Michael O'Brien has been careful with his mare when selecting the races for her to contest. While she's been doing well over the two mile trip to date, I reckon she'd like to go further and 2m4f looks ideal. Having said all that, Voler La Vedette is a very serious danger. Colm Murphy's five-year-old is starting to build a nice little picket fence beside her name, and the word on the grapevine is that she's working very well at home. I'm a little bit cautious however; as I'm reliably informed that there's been a bug doing the rounds in that yard; but it's believed that Voler La Vedette has escaped it. Call me a Wexford yellow-belly if you will, but I'm taking a cautious approach and dutching both horses at an overall price of roughly [1.9].

In the opener (2.15), South Wing is overpriced at roughly [8.0]. He shook off a few cobwebs when coming third in a tricky flat handicap at Leopardstown recently, and he should have enough to keep likely favourite Salute Him at bay. With four to be placed, it's definitely worth having a bet in that market too.

Looking south to Cork for a moment, Carrigeen King is another one that's overpriced and is worth a win and place bet in the maiden hurdle at 4.55. Admittedly, the gelding hasn't seen a win in quite some time and risks being one of those perennial placers - but I'm convinced he's more to come, and my own ratings have him six or seven pounds ahead under today's conditions.

Happy Easter folks, and let it be a profitable one!

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