Tony Keenan / 24 March 2009 Free Bet

TRAINERS

Negatives stand out more the positives here with runners handled by Paul Nolan (no places from 8 attempts), Willie Mullins (no places from 7 tries) and Charlie Swan (without a place from 6 runners) doing poorly. On the plus side, Mouse Morris and Ferdy Murphy have done well from few runners with the pair landing a winner and runner-up from 3 and 4 attempts respectively. Others of note include Dessie Hughes (a winner and 2 runners-up from 12 runners) and Ted Walsh (a winner and a narrow second from 6 tries).

AGE

In theory, 3m5f around a galloping Fairyhouse should present a stamina test that favours older horses but the race has only once been run on ground slower than yielding in the last decade and I much prefer to back a youngster. From just 22% of the runners, six- and seven-year-olds have had 5 winners and 6 runners-up as well as 3 further places. Horses aged in double-figures are usually too exposed and/or slow for this and have had just a single win from 70 runners while fourth is the best any of their number have managed since 2005.

PREPARATION & RECENT FORM

Hear The Echo was unusual in that he defied an 87-day absence to win last term but his freshness certainly stood to him as he demolished his rivals and points the way towards an emerging trend. Winners of this race have often had plenty of runs early on in the season but the last 7 winners all share the common pattern of being lightly campaigned in the run-up to the race with none having more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.

While a good run last time out isn't essential, it is important that your fancy should at least have shown a smidgen of form when last seen; of the last 9 winners to complete the course on their most recent start, none finished worse than seventh. The Paddy Power Chase has proved the best recent guide to the race with 4 of the last 8 winners running the valuable Leopardstown contest while the Thyestes has supplied 4 winners since 1999.

WEIGHTS & RATINGS

Phil Smith, the chief English National Hunt handicapper, has valiantly tried to allow a classy horse to win the Aintree National by compressing the weights but thus far his attempts have failed so what chance do our top staying chasers have when they're running off their proper marks? Light-weights totally dominate our National with only one winner the past decade carrying more than 10-12; that horse was Commanche Court with 11-4 in 2000 who went on to prove his mark of 134 silly when he won a Grade 1 next time out. Indeed, half of the last 10 winners have carried the minimum weight of 10-0 while only 2 horses carrying 11-0 or more have even hit the frame. When commencing your search for the winner, give a second look to horses rated between 125 and 136 as 8 of the last 9 winners have emerged from this 11lb ratings band.

STAMINA & EXPOSURE

A Betfair SP of over 52/1 suggests that Hear The Echo was pretty much impossible to find last year and I suspect many punters gave him the elbow as he'd yet to prove his stamina beyond 22f. The eight winners prior to him had all won over at least three miles and many over further so I'd still be reluctant to back any sort of suspect stayer.
Following on from the age stats above, it proves best to concentrate on unexposed horses. None of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases while 3 of that group were still novices.

THE MARKET

Favourite backers looked like collecting last year when Royal County Star loomed up at second last, hitting 1.25 in running, but Tony Martin's Troytown winner found little when let down and added to the dismal record of market leaders here. The last winning favourite was Glebe Lad in 1999 and only Royal County Star has hit the frame for the favourites since with 5 jollies being pulled up.

IN SUMMARY:

- 6yos & 7yos seriously out-perform other age-groups
- Give preference to horses than have been lightly-raced this calendar year
- Oppose runners that showed nothing last time
- Ignore anything carrying 11-0 or more and concentrate on the light-weights
- Throw out suspect stayers
- The favourite has a horrible record

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