Eoin Ryan / 29 November 2009 Free Bet View Market

This year’s early market is headed by Tricky Trickster, an improving 6 year-old chaser trained by Nigel Twiston Davies. He won at The Cheltenham festival in 2009, taking the National Hunt Challenge Chase from the Tony Martin-trained Drumconvis.

The Aintree Grand National used to be thought of as the equine equivalent of forty coloured balls jumping around a draw-drum but recent changes to the way the weights for the world's greatest steeplechase were framed means that horses towards the top of the weight range have a better chance of success. This new approach has been rewarded with a better overall standard of horse lining up to face the starter in recent years, and indeed, a quick review of the past ten winners reveals that two favourites or joint favourites have obliged in the past decade. Of course, that trend got turned on its head last year, when the Venetia William's-trained Mon Mome, under little known pilot Liam Treadwell, obliged at an incredible 100/1. He will undoubtedly be aimed for the race again this season, and trades at around [40.00] on Betfair right now. Whilst he is clearly not without a chance and ran a respectable race last weekend in the Hennessy, life will be a lot tougher for him this year in any handicaps he contests and he will have needed to have improved a lot to win back-to-back Nationals.

The Grand National is such a unique test of stamina and jumping ability, that there is no pre-defined "path" that a typical contender usually takes en route to Aintree in early April. The really top class staying chasers tend not to be considered for the Grand National because they would be asked to shoulder a welter weight, but there is a chance that this year's race could feature a horse straight out of the top drawer. Denman, co-owned by flamboyant professional gambler Harry Findlay, has long been considered an absolute model for the race by his connections (well, Findlay anyway...) and in 2009 there were plenty of punters on Betfair who thought that he would take his chance in the race. However, Denman was a sick horse for much of last season, and despite a superb performance in the Gold Cup, he wasn't himself when falling in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree. This season he has announced his intentions already. Paul Nicholls' nine-year-old became the first horse since Arkle - and only the third in history - to win two Hennessy Gold Cups when humping 11st 12lb to beat stablemate What A Friend by three and a half lengths. Perhaps more importantly though, he won in the style of the "tank" that we all remember from the 2008 season; pouring on the pressure from the front and breaking the eharts of his rivals. If connections are prepared to let him go for the Grand National this season, then he will be sent off favourite and nothing like the [27.00] that is currently available. That's a big "if" though...

This year's early market is headed by Tricky Trickster, an improving 6 year-old chaser trained by Nigel Twiston Davies. He won at The Cheltenham festival in 2009, taking the National Hunt Challenge Chase from the Tony Martin-trained Drumconvis. Stamina should be no issue for Tricky Trickster as the Cheltenham race was over 4 miles and he is a young improving type who will be nicely weighted and is versatile as regards ground conditions. At [19.00]on Betfair, he is the clear current antepost favourite and has a lot in his favour. Black Apalachi has contested the past two renewals of the Grand National but has yet to complete the course. He unseated last season, when sent off a very well backed 11/1 shot. Yet to be seen out this season, he will likely plot a similar course to Aintree again but the suspicion is that he that he may have already had his best chance to win the race. In any case, Dessie Hughes has a more obvious contender this season in the shape of Vic Venturi, who won the Beecher Chase over the Grand National fences two weeks ago at odds of 7/1. That was a small field affair, seven went to post, and the Grand National is a different kettle of fish but punters make Vic Venturi a [30.00] shot on Betfair and he will go there with a big chance if his stamina holds up.

Others of interest at this early stage include Niche Market, winner of the Irish Grand National in 2009. He ran an absolute cracker in the Hennessy and is clearly a likely type for Aintree. At [28.00] he has been a recent market "springer". A couple of dark horses from Ireland include Our Monty (going for the Welsh National) and Operation Houdini (also set for Chepstow). These two are horses on the upgrade and both need an extreme stamina test. They are worth watching in the market over the coming weeks and months, if connections indicate that the Grand National is an end-of-season target.

Tags: Aintree, Black Apalachi, Denman, Eoin Ryan, Grand National 2010, Grand National Betting, Tricky Trickster, Vic Venturi