Tony Keenan / 08 January 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Racing is filled with myths but the one about needing a two-and-a-half mile horse for the National is surely the greatest fallacy of them all and the stats certainly give the lie to this idea."

TRAINERS

With 6 Irish-trained winners since 1999, the race has been kind to the raiders but this pattern is not sure to continue as the English handicapper was noticeably tougher on the Irish runners in 2009 when the best of our runners managed only eighth.
Maximum fields of forty runners are the norm here so trainers find it hard to build impressive records but there are a few points worth making. David Pipe won with Comply Or Die in 2008 and the same horse found only one too good last year while his father Martin had 4 placed runners between 2001 and 2005 - they obviously know the time of day here. Jonjo O'Neill has had 3 placed runners since 2004 while Paul Nicholls has never won the race.

AGE & EXPERIENCE

Young improving horses are generally able to exploit lenient handicap marks in top staying handicap chases like the Hennessy and Welsh National in Britain and Troytown and Thyestes in Ireland but the combination of a marathon trip and a unique jumping test tends to catch them out here and they should be opposed as the more experienced types have a much better record. 15 of the last 16 winners of this race have been nine or older while no seven-year-old has won the race since 1940. In fact, sixth place is the best finish a horse younger than eight has managed in the past decade which would be a major negative against current ante-post favourite Tricky Trickster who is seven.
We should thus concentrate on horses with plenty of practice jumping fences; each of the last 10 winners had at least 10 chase starts before running here while the first four home in last year's race had a total of 82 chase runs between them. Along similar lines, 8 of the last 10 winners have 3 or more seasons of chasing experience. The typical winner of the race tends to be an assured jumper as none of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated over fences in their career.

WEIGHT

The rule of thumb in the National has been to oppose horses carrying 11 stone or more but that theory was seemingly blown out of the water last year when the first four finishers all had at least that weight on their backs. I say seemingly because I don't think the most recent renewal placed the biggest emphasis on stamina and thus made carrying weight easier than usual; Black Apalachi and Silver Birch were taking the field along at a good clip but when both fell at Becher's the second time round the pace slowed markedly. This meant a number of horses out the back were able to get back into the race and at least nine runners looked to have serious chances approaching the second last. As such, I'm willing to treat the 2009 renewal as an exception and it's worth remembering that 17 of the last 19 winners carried 10-12 or less to victory.

RECENT FORM & PREPARATION

As with so many of these big races, a recent run is all important - each of the last 10 winners had run in the previous 9 weeks while 6 had an outing in the last month. By and large they had run well, 7 of the 9 runners to complete the course made the first five. The Cheltenham Festival may provide the hottest form lines of the entire jumps season but expecting a horse to peak there and again just weeks later at Liverpool is just too much to ask; 8 of the last 10 winners bypassed Cheltenham totally while Seagram in 1991 was the last Festival winner to follow up here. Previous experience over the National fences should be respected though as 6 of the last 9 winners had already jumped the famous obstacles, 5 of whom acquitted themselves well.

STAMINA

Racing is filled with myths but the one about needing a two-and-a-half mile horse for the National is surely the greatest fallacy of them all and the stats certainly give the lie to this idea. Proven stamina is a must here with every winner since 2000 having won over at least 3 miles and to be honest I'd prefer them to be proven over further; each of the last 6 victors had won over at least 3m3f. We should accord maximum respect to horses with previous form in one of the big Nationals, be it the Irish, Scottish, Welsh or this race itself. 9 of the last 10 winners had already run in one of those races with 7 making the three in such a race.

IN SUMMARY:

- Respect the Irish challenge
- Concentrate on older horses with plenty of chasing experience
- Horses carrying less than 11-0 do best
- A good recent run is important
- Take a negative view Cheltenham Festival form, especially winners from that meeting
- Upgrade horses with form around the track and/or from the big National races
- Oppose suspect stayers

Tags: Aintree, Aintree Betting, Grand National, Grand National Trends, Tony Keenan