Eoin Ryan / 04 April 2009 Free Bet

The Grand National 2009 market is now fully mature and liquidity is superb as you would expect. Ruby Walsh's decision to ride My Will has led to a dramatic contraction in his odds - even greater than I had foreseen to be honest. At around [10.00] I think any value that existed has more or less ridden out of town now. I can of course see the case to be made for him winning, and it's a pretty compelling one - but not compelling enough to make me want to back him now. I've selected three horses against the field, all at varying odds, and am hopeful that anyone who follows me in, will have something to shout about this afternoon!

GRAND NATIONAL 2009 WIN BET

Rambling Minster is a horse that I have liked for this race since the publication of the weights but the case for siding with him has gotten stronger as the race has taken shape and at around [12.00] I still think he is worth backing in Betfair's win market. There have been 'plunge' horses in the market, such as Southern Vic (who has since drifted dramatically), War of Attrition (who is now a non-runner) and more recently State of Play and Parson's Legacy (the former has a sound chance for sure) but Rambling Minster has been one of those horses that has attracted sustained support over recent weeks - rather than one wholsesale gamble. His chance is rooted in the trends and formbook too - unlike some others near him in the betting.

It's not hard to see why the market likes him, especially if you look at the trends in this race and compare the typical 'profile' of an Aintree Grand National winner to that of Rambling Minster. He fits the important age and weight trends and has won a chase over 3 Miles - stamina will be no issue for this horse. He won a Grade 3 at Haydock last time out and is well used to competing in races with 20+ runners. He is a sound jumper and doesn't need heavy ground to be effective - as some have suggested he does. His trainer and jockey are both happy that he will prove perfectly suited to good ground and for me he is the most solid bet in the race. For those who are looking for a horse that has a serious chance of winning, fits the key trends of a typical winner and is in great form coming into the race...look no further than 'Rambo'.

Eoin's Tip: Back Rambling Minster to Win the Grand National at [13.00] on Betfair.

ONE AT BIGGER ODDS...

Willie Mullins flew the flag for Ireland at Cheltenham with great success and Irish Invader could prove a real livewire at around [26.00] for his supporters in the Grand National. Mullins knows what it takes to win the Grand National thanks to Hedgehunter, and so we must trust the Co.Carlow-based trainer that in Irish Invader he has a horse capable of doing the business again. This horse is clearly on the upgrade, and he has won his last three chase starts comfortably and although he has yet to win a chase over 3 miles+, he did win a hurdle over that distance in 2007. His trainer believes that this extreme distance is within range and rated him as ''ideal candidate'' for this race after his recent win at Thurles. Likely to be asked to shoulder 10st 10lbs or thereabouts, the weight should not prove his un-doing and he is a sound jumper. Expect Irish Invader to be settled well off the pace for the first circuit before gradually creeping into contention on the second circuit. The ever-improving Paul Townend takes the ride.

Eoin's Tip: Back Irish Invader Win & Place [26.00] and [7.40] on Betfair.

AND ONE FOR THE WIFE...

Jonjo O'Neill has four declared at this stage and Tony McCoy will partner Butler's Cabin so the ride on Reveillez has fallen to the amateur rider Mr P Walsh. This horse is trading at around [250.00] on Betfair but on the pick of his form before his spell on the sidelines injured, he is potentially an interesting runner. He won the Jewson Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2006 and then finished second in the Betfred Chase at Sandown, over 3M5F, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. His two runs since his comeback have shown mixed form. He was pulled up on his first outing back (over unsuitable trip and ground and with jumping errors) before running a far better race at Cheltenham last mointh, finishing 11th in the William Hill trophy behind Wichita Lineman. If he was fully tuned up and back to near his best, he'd outrun his odds but he's not one for the grocery money...!

Eoin's Tip: Back Reveillez Win & Place on Betfair at [250.00] and [25.00] on Betfair.

Good luck with your Grand National bets today and remember, there's a €20 free bet on this site for anyone who joins up!

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