Malcolm Pannett / 21 December 2009 Free Bet View Market

"Good luck is probably the biggest single factor in winning the National. However it is largely overlooked despite the fact that everyone knows it can be a lottery"

The merits or otherwise of trends remains a contentious issue. There are those who swear by it and others who just swear at it. Using trends alone to pinpoint the winner is patent folly. Using trends to break down the field before consulting the formbook though can be a useful exercise. Trends are general not specific and pushing the data too far will result in tears.

After Little Polveir won the National in 1989 the fences were altered radically, especially Becher's Brook, which effectively made it a different race. It is still a stern test but not the jumping challenge it was. Therefore I have limited my research to start from 1990, the period after Little Polveir or 'PALP'.

This leaves just 19 races. Now statistics based on a small sample should always be taken with a pinch of salt however analysing all the winners would be more misleading as the race has changed significantly on several occasions since its inception in the 1830s.

Age

Useful: Nine, ten and 11-year-olds have won 15 of the 19 races in PALP which is nearly 80 per cent. No horse under eight or over 12 has won in the period so generally discard the very young and the very old.

Not useful: Of the favoured group nine-year-olds come out marginally on top with six wins which is 31.5 per cent. However turn it on its head and that means that there is a 68.5 per cent chance it won't be a nine-year-old.

Weight

Useful: The general rule appears to suggest that it is favourable to be in the handicap but carrying under 11st (15 out of 19 or 80 per cent). Horses in the bracket 10st 6lb to 10st 8lb have won nine of the 19 races (47 per cent).

Not useful: 10st 6lb is the most successful weight with four wins (21 per cent). This equates more pertinently to a 79 per cent chance of not winning.

Aintree Factor

Not useful but apparently insightful: At one time the handicapper would allocate extra weight to horses that had performed well over the big fences. This has stopped and the race is treated like any other. Therefore horses that have done well over the course should now have an advantage.

Useful: Horses that have not run over the National course before also have a very good record - which negates the above. Watch the horses' jumping styles in their previous races to see if they are likely to cope with Aintree.

Irish-trained

Not useful: During the second half of PALP there have been six Irish-trained winners (six out of 11 or 55 per cent).

Useful: They have coincided with the boost to the Irish economy, often referred to as the Celtic Tiger, which meant broadly that horses that would formerly have been exported were kept at home in Ireland. The Celtic Tiger has now lost its claws in dramatic fashion which could see this statistic will decrease rapidly.

That's the pseudo-science done - now the twist in the tail.

Good Luck

Difficult to stomach but not to be overlooked: Good luck is an anathema to statisticians and form readers alike as it cannot be quantified. There are many philosophical theories on the subject but there is not nearly enough space to go into them here suffice to say that Dave Dick and John Buckingham had it on the day while Dick Francis and Josh Gifford didn't.

These are extreme examples however there are crucial incidents each year that have a major effect on the result. And overall good luck, or the lack of it, is probably the biggest single factor in winning the National. However it is largely overlooked despite the fact that everyone knows it can be a lottery. Strange but true - and that's why we love it.

Summary

In conclusion the race might be won by a nine-year-old carrying 10st 6lb with previous Aintree experience who is marginally more likely to be trained in Ireland than England - but then again it might not.