Tony Keenan / 18 May 2009 Free Bet

TRAINERS

We have to go back over twenty years to find the last Irish trainer other than Aidan O'Brien to win this race and it comes as no surprise that it was his namesake Vincent who landed the race with Prince Of Birds in 1988. The current Master of Ballydoyle takes his usual scattergun approach to Group 1 races here with 31 runners in the past decade but this modus operandi has worked well with 4 winners, 6 runners-up and 2 thirds, including clean sweeps of the places in 2001 and 2002.
Of the other Irish trainers, Dermot Weld has a particularly poor record just a single third place finish from 10 runners but it would be harsh to knock the efforts of the remaining members of the big five as they've not done too badly from relatively few attempts; Jim Bolger has had 2 runners-up and a third from 5 runners, Kevin Prendergast a third from 4 runners and John Oxx a second from 3 tries.
This leaves the English trainers with an excellent record. From 27 runners since 1999, they've had 6 winners as well as three places and it seems not to matter which of their trainers sends across runners; the names of five different English handlers have gone on the winner's trophy in the past decade including some lesser-known figures like James Toller and Paul D'Arcy.

PREPARATION & RECENT FORM

Previous 2,000 Guineas form, and much preferably from England rather than France, is the key here with all of the last 9 winners having their most recent outing in the English or French equivalent of this event. In fact, the last 7 winners all had their last run 3 weeks previous at Newmarket with only one finishing worse than seventh. This is not to say that Newmarket form is always upheld at the Curragh; the tracks are different in their configuration and the ground is often softer in Ireland so it's crucial to try to find the horse that will be best suited by this new challenge.

The English Guineas winner has a fair record in this race, with 5 such horses attempting the double since 1999 and 3 succeeding though Sea The Stars is an unlikely runner. The record of the placed horses however is poor with none of the 10 horses to finish second or third at Newmarket winning at Curragh and this would be a negative that Delegator (who on his third start of the season may not be open to much improvement either) will have to overcome. Those chasing home the placed horses have a better record with the Aidan O'Brien pair Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman (fourth and fifth in the English Guineas) looking interesting as they're likely to have improved plenty for their first run of the season.

RATINGS

I've had to use artistic license to come up with official marks for some of the English-trained winners of the race but by and large ratings have been a decent guide with 7 of the last 10 winners being rated 114 or more. Two of the exceptions were trained by Aidan O'Brien - Black Minnaloushe and Saffron Walden - which isn't much of a surprise given his ability to improve horses quickly over a short space of time.

JUVENILE FORM

Some may deem juvenile form irrelevant at this point in the season as we've already had the chance to see what most of the runners can do at three but I'd be keen to keep battle-hardened horses with experience of group races on my side. 8 of the last 9 winners had run at least three times at two with the same number winning a juvenile event while all of the last 10 winners had shown form in pattern races as two-year-olds.

TACTICS

With Aidan O'Brien averaging just over 3 runners a year in this race, pacemakers are the norm here but there's been no real benefit to be derived from being held up; 8 of the last 10 winners have raced no further back than mid-division.

THE MARKET

There were a few boil-overs early on in the period covered, not least Black Minnaloushe's 20/1 win in 2001, but this hasn't been a bad race for punters recently. The favourite has only once finished out of the first two since 2002 while the winner could be found in the top four in the market in the same timeframe.

IN SUMMARY:

- Horses trained by Aidan O'Brien and in England have dominated recently
- The English 2,000 Guineas is by far the best trial, though placed horses at Newmarket have struggled
- Give runners rated 114 or more a second look
- Experienced juveniles have a decent record
- Most recent winners have been found in the front four of the betting

********