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Betting tips for Leopardstown Christmas festival, day one
Tony Keenan / 24 December 2009 Free Bet View Market
Timeform rate Sizing Europe 3lbs clear of Osana.
"Preference is for Sizing Europe, who has barely come of the bridle to land a three-timer and has achieved form good enough to win an average Arkle in the process."
No doubt about the classiest race on the card as the Grade 1 novice chase brings together three classy hurdlers in Sizing Europe, Osana and Captain Cee Bee, all of whom are unbeaten over fences. Captain Cee Bee is the least experienced of the trio and may find this stiff test coming too early in his chasing career while I'm not convinced Osana is truly top-class; the 7yo has won just one of his nine starts in listed company or better. Preference is for Sizing Europe, who has barely come of the bridle to land a three-timer and has achieved form good enough to win an average Arkle in the process. His jumping has been exceptional and with his yard continuing in fine form, any price the right side of even money is worth taking.
The day's other pattern race is for juvenile hurdlers and the 110-rated flat recruit Alaivan is a worthy market leader. He jumped well on his hurdling debut and the form has been franked but whether he deserves to be quite so short is open to question. Cross Appeal is himself unbeaten over sticks and could well be better than the bare form of what he's achieved so far; Noel Meade's runner does little when hitting the front and tends to need plenty of stoking along in his races. As such, he's likely to trade at a bigger price in-running and that's the suggested play as we may not have seen the best of this idle sort.
The handicap hurdle provides one of the better betting opportunities of the meeting in the shape of Duers. The consistent gelding is well-handicapped over hurdles having split a pair of next time out winners last time and is also 25lbs lower than over fences. He travels strongly in his races and shouldn't have any problems with this trip and he should be backed in the win and place markets.
The last eight winners of the 2m1f handicap chase were sent off 9/2 or shorter, were aged between six and eight and had finished in the three last time out and Frontier Lady is the only runner to fit this profile. Her claims on the form book look rock solid too as she only just went down in similar event last time, having travelled strongly and jumped well, only just caught out by the heavy ground in the closing stages. The better ground here will suit ideally and she rates the best bet on the card.
I'm reluctant to back top bumper horses making their hurdling debuts at this meeting - history shows that they find it very to win the competitive maidens run here - but it's hard ignore the claims of Rite Of Passage in the opener. His first season under national hunt rules included a fine third to Dunguib at Cheltenham and he has been in fine form on the flat lately, winning the November Handicap over this course. He faces paucity of opposition in the opening maiden and should win.
The same cannot be said of his stable mate Universal Truth who faces a strong field in the second. His recent flat efforts have been disappointing and Mr Cracker is taken to land the prize. The winning pointer looked worse than useless when pulled up on his first two starts of the season but his fourth place effort behind the likes of Torphichen and Ebadiyan last time looks the best form on offer. There's a suspicion that the form may be false but the time was decent and they pulled well clear of the remainder and his poor start to the season means that he might be underestimated in the betting.
Elegant Concorde is the one they have beat in the closing bumper. The full-brother to eight-time winner Majestic Concorde was a good second to the smart Tornedo Shay at the track last January with the likes of Whispering Hills and Blackstairmountain in behind. Breeding suggests the ground is unlikely to be a problem and he can take the measure of Spill The Beans.
