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Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle trends
Tony Keenan / 19 January 2010 Free Bet View Market
The 2010 Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday, 24th January.
"This race was a favourite backer’s heaven between 1998 and 2006 when 8 of the 9 market leaders won and while the last three jollies have been turned over this is still a pretty good race for punters as 9 of the last 10 winners have emerged from the front three in the betting."
TRAINERS
Not much to go on here with only one of the trainers to win the race in the last decade even having an entry at the 5-day stage. That is Edward O'Grady who won the 2002 renewal with Ned Kelly and he has the outsider Torphichen engaged this time.
Considering that he often has a number of Champion Hurdle hopefuls, Noel Meade's record here is disappointing. His last win in the race came 13 years ago while just one of his 6 runners in the past decade placed. Four of those were well-fancied, sent off at 5/1 or shorter, which looks a negative for Donnas Palm here.
English challengers for this race have been thin on the ground but that could change this year with both Celestial Halo and Punjabi having entries. Five raiders have come across the water for this since 2000 and they have finished:34665.
AGE
Five-year-olds and younger should be opposed here with the 9 such runners in the past decade managing just a third place between them. The winners have been spread across the age groups between six and eleven, with only the seven-year-olds failing to get in on the act, but I would certainly give preference to the six-year-olds. 12 runners from this age group have run here in the last 10 years and 4 have won, with 3 more coming second, while of the 5 unplaced horses, all but one was an outsider priced at 14/1 or bigger. A number of the main protagonists, including Solwhit and Celestial Halo, are six.
RECENT FORM & PREPARATION
Ignore out-of-form horse as all of the recent winners to have run in the current season made the frame last time if completing.
In terms of trial races, the December Hurdle, run over course-and-distance on the final day of the Christmas Festival, has been the best guide with 5 of the last 1o winners emerging from the race. The 8 winners of the Christmas race that attempted to follow up have finished:432117F1 and the first and second from the most recent renewal, Solwhit and Sublimity, are both engaged here.
Cheltenham's early season meetings have thrown up two of the last three winners with Sizing Europe winning the both Greatwood before his 2008 success and Hardy Eustace improving on his Boylesports International second to take this in 2007. Celestial Halo will bid to do the same this year while his placed finish in the previous season's Champion Hurdle is also a plus; 4 of the last 10 winners made the first three in hurdling championship the season before taking this.
COURSE FORM & TACTICS
The largely flat, galloping Leopardstown track has no obvious quirk that should made it a specialists' track but, for whatever reason, horses with a bit of 'previous' at the venue have tended to come to the fore. 8 of the last 10 winners had already won at the track while of the exceptions, one was having his first run in Ireland while the other had finished second and third on its starts here. Of this year's entries, Al Eile, De Valira, Solwhit, Sublimity and Won In The Dark, are all previous winners at Leopardstown.
The relatively short straight with just one hurdle has made it difficult for horses to come from off the pace here with prominent racers doing well. None of the last 10 winners sat any further back than tracking the pace.
THE MARKET
This race was a favourite backer's heaven between 1998 and 2006 when 8 of the 9 market leaders won and while the last three jollies have been turned over this is still a pretty good race for punters as 9 of the last 10 winners have emerged from the front three in the betting.
IN SUMMARY:
- Six-year-olds have an excellent strike-rate
- The December Festival Hurdle is the best trial but Cheltenham form should also be respected
- Previous course winners have the upper hand
- Confirmed hold-up horses should be opposed
- Concentrate on the front end of the market
