Simon Rowlands / 03 February 2010 Free Bet

"Breeders, owners, trainers and even punters have already devised ways of establishing likely stamina, if not with such certainty, and some of the approaches are quite sophisticated. It is against these, and not against chance, that the Equinome Speed Gene Test really needs to be measured."

A week is supposed to be a long time in politics, but four weeks just seemed to fly by in Blogland. Still, plenty has happened in the month since I last wrote on these pages, though less of it has happened on the track than might be expected due to the weather.

Not least, there was the discovery of the so-called "speed gene", trumpeted as "the biggest thing in 300 years of racehorse breeding" by some associated with the discovery. The original paper can be found here and it is, ostensibly at least, an impressive piece of work.

However, I am sure I was not alone in feeling less than comfortable with the way the news was presented in the media with few questions seeming to have been asked. When lofty academia shares its bed with something so nakedly commercial it becomes difficult to tell where disinterested description ends and the sales pitch begins.

In essence, those who have devised the Equinome Speed Gene Test claim to be able to predict a horse's optimum distance (though only in terms of fairly broad categories) and by extension its likely precocity, though it does not give a steer on ability.
Equipped with this information, trainers should be able to avoid much of the costly trial and error that goes into establishing a horse's stamina requirements. Who knows, maybe Sir Mark Prescott will start running his sons of Rainbow Quest, out of Sadler's Wells mares, at beyond a mile a bit sooner as a result...

Therein lies another of the reasons why it may be best to receive the findings with just a pinch of salt. Breeders, owners, trainers and even punters have already devised ways of establishing likely stamina, if not with such certainty, and some of the approaches are quite sophisticated. It is against these, and not against chance, that the Equinome Speed Gene Test really needs to be measured.

Unfortunately, that is not possible, as those involved with the Test refuse to reveal which horses were used as a cohort in the trial. I know because I asked.

It is customary in scientific research to protect the identity of individuals who have taken part in trials for reasons relating to privacy, but I, for one, cannot see how this should apply to a racehorse. Perhaps the other horses in the yard will point and stare when Dobbin is outed as a T:T.

In the absence of such pertinent information, I decided to look at how predictable the winning distances of a group of horses were based solely on their pedigrees rather than on their genes. For this, I used all horses to have run for Jim Bolger in 2009 that won (either for him or for someone else) and compared their "best winning distance" with that predicted by the pedigree analyser devised by Dr Peter May: http://www.smartersig.com/cgi-bin/profsire.cgi

The methodology behind Dr May's analyser is described convincingly and at some length in his book "Horseracing: A Guide To Profitable Betting". The information used in the analyser was last updated prior to the start of the 2009 Flat season, so it was not influenced by the events it was supposed to be measuring.

Dr May's analyser came up with what I would regard as quite impressive results. 62% of horses for which there was data gained their best win at within just one furlong of the value predicted, and 86% at within just two. That may not be quite as impressive as the claims made for the Equinome Speed Gene Test, but it comes at a cost that is fully €1,000 less.

It is to be hoped, for us poor punters and for others without the ability or inclination to cough up a cool grand, that the good Doctor reconsiders and updates his gratis service before the 2010 turf Flat season. It sounds as if those outside the loop are going to need all the help they can get.

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Sunday promises to be a big day in Irish racing, with several major races taking place at Leopardstown. Ante-post markets are already up on Betfair.
I fancy Joncol in the Hennessy (2 pts win back), as I believe he did a bit too much too soon last time, and I will be looking to oppose Carlito Brigante (lay to lose 2 pts) in the Juvenile Hurdle. The latter took a notable scalp on his latest start but was inferior to three of his rivals on the Flat (two of them by a big margin) and may not get the test of speed he is likely to require. Rahan de Marcigny is interesting back at two miles on the undercard also.