The Betfair Contrarian / 18 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Denman has raced at Cheltenham six times, winning on four of them and finishing second on the other two, with last year's Gold Cup second being an achievement in itself as he had not long returned following treatment for an irregular heartbeat."

Arguably the Contrarian's greatest ever success came two years ago when tipping Kauto Star to be toppled at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Denman was the hero that day and the stage is set for history to repeat itself: Kauto Star is champion again and the Denman doubters are adamant that he won't beat the first horse to regain the Gold Cup (and in the process become the second). The Contrarian's support is unwavering, so if you were foolish enough not to listen in 2008, make sure you don't make the same mistake twice. Here's why you should back Denman at [4.5]...

Don't be put off by the Aon Chase unseating
Denman's failure to complete the Aon Chase, having unseated new jockey Tony McCoy, was brilliant news for his supporters. The fallout, with punters misguidedly looking to blame McCoy for the flop and prematurely writing the partnership off as a failure has pushed his price out to [4.5] to win next month's Gold Cup. Kauto Star unseated his rider in the 2008 Betfair Chase, his penultimate race before last years Gold Cup, and it had absolutely no impact on his Cheltenham performance.

Denman has a great record at Cheltenham
Kauto Star has only won on two of his four Cheltenham outings, finishing a distant second to Denman in the 2008 Gold Cup, the only real meeting of the two horses with both at their best, and fell on his first appearance there in the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2006. In comparison, Denman has raced there six times, winning on four of them and finishing second on the other two, with last year's Gold Cup second being an achievement in itself as he had not long returned following treatment for an irregular heartbeat.

It's ridiculous to write off McCoy...
AP McCoy has been the British jump racing champion jockey for 12 consecutive years and has won over 3,000 races, a tally that makes him the best of all time, and yet some critics are trying to point to his unseating last weekend at Newbury as proof that he is the wrong choice to ride Denman at the Gold Cup. Not only does that argument ignore McCoy's incredible record, it also assumes that his riding style was to blame for the loss in the Aon Chase, rather than a rare bad jump by the horse towards the end of a race that strategically was going perfectly to plan.

...and his recent Gold Cup record is impressive
McCoy has won the Gold Cup before, back in 1997, but his performance in recent years, when the race has been dominated by Paul Nicholls-trained horses like Kauto Star and Denman, is arguably just as worthy of praise, and will have no doubt impacted on Nicholls decision to give him the Denman ride. In two of the last three years he has ridden the best-placed horse from outside Nicholls stable, finishing second behind Kauto Star in 2007 on Exotic Dancer and third last year.

Denman isn't dependent on a certain jockey
Whereas Kauto Star has been mounted by Ruby Walsh in nine of his last ten races, and failed to last the distance the last time he was ridden by anyone else, Denman has never been reliant on a certain jockey to triumph. Prior to McCoy, Denman has had three different jockeys: Christian Williams, Walsh and Sam Thomas, and won with all three.

History weighs on Kauto Star's shoulders
Still need another reason why Kauto Star won't retain? It's really, really hard to do. Since 1971, only one horse has won the race in successive years and that was Best Mate, who proved unstoppable between 2002 and 2004. Kauto Star himself a legend had a chance to do it in 2008 and failed miserably.