Wayne Bailey / 11 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

“It’s also worth remembering that Barbury Castle stables were out of sorts late last year so a poor run last time may be forgiven.”

The big story this week regarding the Totesport Trophy was the plunge on Paul Nicholls' Takeroc, who was matched as high as [240.0] on Betfair for small change - but hit a low of [11.5] soon before the market closed on Thursday as the decs list was updated.

Nicholls wrote about the seven-year-old in the Racing Post on Saturday suggesting he had a good each-way chance and a bit of a gamble began which continued all week. To be honest, the value looks gone and one wonders if punters have over-reacted a little. Then again, fresh in the mind is Taranis' victory in the Argento Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham (priced around [30.0] on Betfair) followed up on Saturday by Beshabar in the Totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown which was also priced in double figures - so you can't blame punters for wanting to back a Ditcheat horse at nice odds.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Takeroc and fair dues to anyone who got a big price but for me, his odds are now too short (especially with Ruby aboard) and it's time to look elsewhere.

Of the outsiders, Nick Gifford's Pascha Bere could be an interesting one with Liam Treadwell doing the steering. He ran out of steam at Sandown and his race comments would suggest that the handicappers have him in their grasp, but heavy ground was never going to suit so I think he's worth a second look if conditions at Newbury stay good-to-soft, especially if he trades around [60.0] pre-race as I'd expect. My stakes will be fun-sized but I'm going to take a chance in the win and place markets just in case.

But the one I'm most interested in is the Alan King trained Manyriverstocross who will probably go off around [12.0] or thereabouts. The five-year-old was matched at a high of [120.0] on Betfair so my argument about value (or lack of) could be applied here too - but this one has caught my eye numerous times in the past year on both codes and he rarely runs a bad race. Some will remember his as a decent handicapper on the flat but over sticks his record now reads 1317 with the potential of more to come. I'll concede that he was very disappointing at Newbury last time in the Grade One Challow Novices' Hurdle but once again, I'm going to blame the ground and we should see an improvement on Saturday. He did win a Grade Two in heavy ground so I could be wrong about his preferences but having watched his races a number of times over, I reckon Saturday's conditions will suit him better. A big field with a decent pace will suit and his trainer gave a positive report in this week's weekender:

"I think he is on a fair mark and for an improving novice it could be that he isn't badly treated at all...Let me put it this way I am very much looking forward to the race."

It's also worth remembering that Barbury Castle stables were out of sorts late last year so a poor run last time may be forgiven. King seems to have sorted out the problems in the yard and anyone following his horses in 2010 would show a healthy profit of 8pts so fingers crossed he can keep things ticking over nicely this weekend.

***

Tony McCoy will get acquainted with The Tank in the Aon Chase and in the early list, Denman is rated a whopping 62lbs clear of Wee Robbie who sits at the bottom of the ratings. He's also 24lbs clear of his nearest rival and barring an absolute catastrophe - he'll win with ease, setting us up for the most anticipated Gold Cup in decades. Enjoy!

Best bets:

3.05 Newbury - Manyriverstocross (win and place).
3.05 Newbury - Pascha Bere (win and place).