George Hook / 03 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"I fully believe Ireland will win this match by 25 or even 30 points. Italy, minus their talisman, away from home and playing a side that went undefeated in 2009 , are there for the slaughter."

First of all, let me state clearly that the result of this match is not up for debate. Ireland will win and they should win easily. Anyone who believes otherwise is either deluded or directly related to Italian coach Nick Mallet. Ireland are too strong out wide, too experienced upfront and too cute in their coaching set up to allow what would undoubtedly be one of the biggest upsets in our history. Italy will arrive at Croke Park on Saturday afternoon ready to play but they will leave after eighty minutes with a comprehensive defeat.

In many ways this opening fixture is the perfect start to the 2010 Six Nations for Declan Kidney. It is a home match against a side Ireland will not have to be at full throttle to beat. It allows a period of adjustment to the pace and standard required at international level. A below par twenty minutes will not result in the opposition putting thirty points on the board; Italy are just not good enough for that. Instead, Brian O'Driscoll and his side can feel their way in to this tournament with what is widely considered the easiest of the five 6 Nations games. That is not to say that they will take the Azzurri lightly. Far from it. But it does afford a certain luxury in that not everything has to be firing at optimum in order to register a first win.

Undoubtedly Italy's greatest threat is missing from the starting fifteen. Sergio Parrisse is not only an inspirational leader; he is a potential match winner. For a team like Italy, his loss cannot be overemphasised. The number eight has been the main catalyst for so many of their strong performances in recent times and his injury is a massive blow. Without him, the Italian pack is an altogether different proposition.

Maura Bergamasco will aim to take up the mantle from his injured team mate and he, too, can have a significant impact on proceedings. The Italian front row includes the ever menacing Martin Castrogiovanni and Treviso hooker Ghiraldini, both of whom will cause Irelands faltering scrum big problems at the set piece. The return of lock Carlo Del Fava too will add some serious muscle to their forward unit. But this match will not be won or lost upfront. Ireland are a different class when it comes to the backline and I expect plenty of tries.

So, given that we think Ireland will win this game and on the assumption that the bookies have not suffered severe amnesia between now and kick off on Saturday, where is there value in the betting markets? At last glance, Ireland are 50/1 ON to win on a straight bet. It doesn't take a genius to work out the lack of value there. The key to making a few quid on this game, is predicting how many points Ireland will win by. Here I think I have found the answer to our question. As it stands, Ireland minus 20 points are 10/11. That for me is easy money. I fully believe Ireland will win this match by 25 or even 30 points. Italy, minus their talisman, away from home and playing a side that went undefeated in 2009 , are there for the slaughter.

Similarly, Ireland will want to start the defence of their title with a bang; put out a warning to other sides that last year was not a one off. The pace of Tommy Bowe and Trimble on the wings, the skill and intelligence of Darcy and O'Driscoll in the centre and fly half hoping to re-establish himself as the number one fly half in the country in Ronan O'Gara should all point to a comfortable yet clinical victory. Momentum in rugby is huge. Ireland do not want to start 2010 with a defeat.

Verdict: Ireland to win by 25 points or more.

Tags: 6 Nations, Croke Park, George Hook, Ireland, Italy