Recent entries in Rugby
Autumn Internationals Rugby Betting sees Ireland to beat South Africa by seven points or more
Brent Pope / 26 November 2009 Free Bet View Market
"They say the Springbok is at its most dangerous when down and wounded, and the bad blood that has existed over the years between the two nations, further fuelled with speculation that the senior Irish players on the Lions tour snubbed the Boks, just adds extra spice to this collision"
This weekend the World Champs roll into town desperate to salvage something positive from an otherwise disastrous off season tour. The reigning Tri Nations Champs, already beaten 3 times on this tour and twice by English club sides arrive in rag ball order, with many of their leading players crocked. To plug the ever widening holes, they have had to call on the loyalty of their two Irish based provincial players Jean de Villiers from Munster and CJ Van Der Linde from Leinster. Both could be playing against their adopted teammates this weekend and to be honest given the calibre of these players, Ireland will hope they don't. De Villiers is still streets above Jacobs, while Van De Linde would put the "Beast" in his pocket as a scrummager and will test the inexperienced young Cian Healy to the limit. They say the Springbok is at its most dangerous when down and wounded, and the bad blood that has existed over the years between the two nations, further fuelled with speculation that the senior Irish players on the Lions tour snubbed the Boks, just adds extra spice to this collision.
Declan Kidney has again showed that he has the guts and foresight to make the big call, as he did when he dropped Peter Stringer before the Munster Heineken Cup final. This move by Kidney shows that he is prepared to take a chance on form and also on youth, and more significantly that he is establishing an important message that no player, not even ones that he had spent over a decade at the top with, are assured of their position. This lack of action was former Coach Eddie O'Sullivan's Achilles heel, when the Irish side suddenly became harder to get out of than to get into. Loyalty can never be allowed to cloud form, and Sexton proved last week that he deserves a chance to show his coach what he can or cannot do? To be fair to Ronan O'Gara, he may still the man in possession of the jersey come 6 Nations time and remains a great player, but long term there was definite merit in having his backup Sexton exposed to the game at the highest level sooner than later.
Elsewhere Leinster's loose-head prop Cian Healy comes back into the team after a somewhat disappointing starting debut by Ulster's Tom Court last week, when Irelands scrum did not really dominate against a Fijian cockpit with little or no experience. With only a handful of domestic games behind them, Ireland should have done better. Healy did not scrum brilliantly against Australia either, but South Africa are not really noted as the best scrummagers in the business, although Healy may struggle if he is forced to come up against his Leinster teammate CJ Van Der Linde, who will already know a lot about Healy's deficiencies. Regardless of carrying the tag of World Champions and Tri Nations winners, South Africa are struggling to bring a new breed of Springbok through. Losses to Premiership club sides as well as France are not exactly the best preparation for Croke Park, but to beat the best in the Northern Hemisphere is the one they really want so you can guarantee they will be up for this one, injured or not.
The way to beat South Africa is easy in theory but difficult in practice; first Ireland must deny Heinrich Brussow from stealing Ireland's second phase ball. Brussow was basically a second choice player in South Africa behind the likes of Juan Smith, until the new IRB rules made the breakdown a refereeing mess. With a squat frame and immensely strong upper body, Brussow is now the prototype of the modern open side flanker (even if he has 6 on his back), and a long way from the fleet footed speedsters like Michael Jones, Josh Kronfield and Neil Back who ruled the world but a few years ago. Brussow is now the most destructive flanker in the game, if this is a compliment? To counteract Brussow's strengths at the ruck area, Ireland MUST be prepared to commit more players to the breakdowns, and also ruck over the ball more aggressively than they have been doing. Against Australia and then last week against Fiji, Ireland fanned out far too many players at ruck time, more or less conceding that they had already lost possession, when at times a sudden and aggressive push forward could have possibly turned the ball back Ireland's way.
Ireland must also look to negate South Africans most effective weapon out of touch, namely the best second row combination in the world, in the monster sized Bakkies Botha and the spring heeled Victor Matfield. South Africa has the perfect pairing of strength and athleticism in their engine room, however on Saturday afternoon they come up against the second best combination in Paul O'Connell and Donnacha O'Callaghan. The Irish skyscrapers have an advantage in that they are at home, they are fit and injury free and they have a telepathic relationship with their Munster hooker Jerry Flannery. As part of their traditionally favored kicking game, South Africa look to force opposition backs back into their perceived area of strength, the forwards, by pushing up very hard in the backs. South Africa have always invested in similar types of backs, namely strong, physical specimens like Trevor Halstead, Butch James, Dannie Gerber and Munster adoptee Jean de Villiers, while even Lions heartbreaker Jacque Fourie is hardly a wilting violet at nearly 6ft 4 and 17 stone, but they have never been the most creative of players. When was the last time you remember a Jeremy Guscott or Brian O' Driscoll type of creator in a South African backline?
So against this background Ireland must attempt to play in the same way they attempted to start the game against Australia, namely attempt to get the Irish backs (O' Driscoll in particular) outside his opposite man. Much of the Lions good attack ploys in the summer used decoy runners and angles of attack to keep the South African inside backs busy while the likes of Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney exposed the Springboks out wide. Keith Earls try against Fiji showed the use of decoy runners and also showed that Kidney was preparing to play the same way this weekend. I think that it will work. Ireland looks the fresher team, they are equal or not better in most areas of the park than the Springboks and they are home at Croker.
Ireland to win by more than 7....
