Paul Moon / 04 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"The nervousness of both teams makes for an enthralling match. Defeat in the opening game would be a disaster for either team."

Since the four home nations started playing each other in 1883 no team has won the tournament outright three times in a row and back-to-back Grand Slams have only been achieved five times.

The nature of the beast seems to demand cyclical success; so can England (without a title in seven years) step up under Martin Johnson? This year Twickenham celebrates its centenary and it was here on 9 October 1910 that England defeated Wales 11-6 in the very first match so perhaps there 's a chance that history will repeat itself.

Here in South Wales the fixture against England is a time for proud Welshmen to sing. It is the golden fixture that every player and fan looks forward to but the mood in the Valleys this year is distinctly subdued. Pessimism has gripped us, we are full of concerns about playing style, personnel and self-belief. It's hard to find a Welshman confident enough to predict a fourth successive Six Nations Welsh win against England, despite strong convictions that the visitors have the better players.

The latest Betfair prices: England [1.73] Wales [2.54] Draw [26.0].

The Welsh public do not share coach Warren Gatland's belief that he can fix the problems that emerged from his side's mixed November series or that there were plenty of positives to take out of them.

Individually accomplished it may be, but the Welsh side lacks cohesion. It's interesting to note that despite the quality players, a Welsh club is yet win the Heineken Cup. The initial injection of purpose under Gatland and Edwards has faded. Players have lost their zest.

Wales are at odds with the kicking game, leaving them out of tune with the modern game. Gatland calls for balance and variation while emphasising that you can play positive rugby as long as you are smart. Whilst most wish to see more running rugby it appears that the top teams disagree with that philosophy. Even Wales kicking coach Neil Jenkins agrees that the winner of the 2010 Six Nations will be the team which propels the ball furthest.

The omission of Leigh Halfpenny from the starting line-up for Saturday's match was a surprise and James Hook will take on long distance kicking duties. This appears to be an edge given away. Wales are already without first-choice scrum-half Mike Phillips (foot) and Dwayne Peel (shoulder injury) while that marvellous talent Gavin Henson remains absent.

The good news is that Lee Bryne has been cleared of malpractice against Leicester in the Heineken Cup and will play. He was sorely missed when injured in the autumn matches against New Zealand and Australia and his importance cannot be underestimated. His defensive qualities and especially his aerial prowess will be called upon in this game. Without him Wales could not have won, with him they have a squeak.

The nervousness of both teams make for an enthralling match. Defeat in the opening game would be a disaster for either team. Gatland will have talked about the lack of leadership in the England ranks and that is an area the Welsh hope to exploit. He will remind his team that there are 10 players in the starting line-up who were with the Lions in South Africa last summer.

The Welsh public accepts that their team faces a tough tournament and there is no talk of a title. They will be competitive but fall short while Gatland's involvement with the Lions might have been a serious mistake for Welsh rugby.

Latest Betfair prices: England [1.73] Wales [2.54] Draw [26.0].