George Hook / 21 January 2010 Free Bet

"As we have seen so many times in the history of this tournament, the form displayed in qualifying for the knockout stages rarely reflects the success at the business end of the competition"

It is a huge testament to the strength of Irish rugby that three provinces remain in contention for the quarter finals of this year's Heineken Cup.

On the face of it, Munster and Leinster have considerably easier tasks to make it through after steady progression in their respective pools. Ulster know even a bonus victory against Bath at the Rec on Saturday may not be enough, with their fate very much in the hands of Stade Francais and Edinburgh. Munster and Leinster remain the bookies favourites to lift the trophy in May but as we have seen so many times in the history of this tournament, the form displayed in qualifying for the knockout stages rarely reflects the success at the business end of the competition. Leinsters triumph last season is a sure testament to that.

There have been many occasions this season where Munster have demonstrated poor form. An opening day defeat to Northampton followed by a scrappy and error ridden performance against Treviso at Thomond park left many, including myself, wondering if perhaps this team had left their best days behind them. This is not a young side, after all, with the majority of the first choice starting fifteen over thirty years of age. But with age comes experience. In the two victories over Perpignan, Munster showed their dogged determination in grinding out a narrow win at Thomond Park. That was followed by a performance of the season in claiming a four try bonus point at the Stade Aime Giral. Two very different displays but signs that Tony McGahan's side were improving. Now, with the final hurdle against Northampton looming on Friday night, I do not expect them to falter.

The English side are tricky customers and the history books are not in Munsters favour; they have never beaten Northampton in this competition. There are not many teams capable of matching Munster upfront, but the Northampton pack will not be intimidated. A front row consisting of Scotland international prop Euan Murray and six foot five, twenty three stone Tongan loose head Soane Tongauiha will not be bullied in the scrum. Argentina international Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe commands the lineout from the second row and the back row hunt together to gobble up loose ball. If Munster fail to stamp their authority up front, it could make for a very long night.

Tony McGahan seems to have finally settled on a first choice centre partnership of Jean de Villiers and Keith Earls. The former Springbok captain has taken time to settle in Limerick but over the last 6 weeks has started to show real form in the number 12 jersey. His ability to break from open play, epitomised by a hand off and off load to Earls for try number five against Treviso last weekend, causes havoc in opposition backlines. Earls too seems much happier alongside de Villiers than when paired with Lafemi Mafi. If Munster can get quick ball to their backs on Friday night, they would appear to have the edge over Northampton out wide.

Leinster's position in pool 6 has been made so much easier with London Irish losing to the Scarlets last weekend. Watching Shane Horgan and Brian O'Driscoll combine for a fourth try bonus point against Brive at the RDS, Michael Cheika could not have imagined its significance come Monday morning. The defending champions are now five points clear, so only a bonus point win for London Irish along with Leinster's failure to get even a point from the match would see Cheika's men overhauled at the top. It is a nice position to be in coming to the end of the pool stage. London Irish upset the odds by winning in Dublin last year but Leinster have kicked on since then, putting in some really strong performances. Even an injury to fly half Jonathon Sexton before Christmas couldn't upset their momentum and with the 24 year old back at number ten on Saturday you wouldn't be against another Leinster win.

Ulster's hopes of reaching the last eight - while still mathematically possible - appear a little over stretched. They would need to beat Bath at the Rec on Saturday and also hope Edinburgh can deny Stade victory at Murrayfield. A win for Brian McLaughlin in England is certainly achievable - their performance against Edinburgh at Ravenhill last week showed real progress from last season - but the fact they are relying on the Scots to help them out against one of the strongest teams in France, means a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup is a more realistic target. With such a young squad, lead by the hugely impressive Chris Henry at number eight, it won't be long before they break the hoodoo of 10 years without a place in the knockout phase.

Verdict: Munster to win by more than 4 points.
- Leinster to win
- Ulster to win