Hugh Cahill / 19 June 2009 Free Bet

The Springboks are a tough, grueling and aggressive side and they don't like losing on their home patch. They have a ferocious pack that sniff out and hunt down opposition with ruthlessness and precision and the pace and ability in the backs is enough to frighten the bravest of opponents. They are favourites for a reason.

The bragging rights in the global battle between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere have been with the south since 2001, following the Wallabies 2-1 series triumph and the All Blacks' 3-0 whitewash in 2005. Not only that, but South Africa are also the current World Cup champions. For the last few weeks, Ian McGeechan, Shaun Edwards and Rob Howley have insisted that losing the first test is not a disaster and maybe they're right. But if you look closely at the statistics of past tours, winning the first battle is key to claiming a series victory. In previous years - there has been 12 Lions tours to South Africa before this one - the side that went one up has gone on to take the series on nine occasions. The 1891, 1896, 1974 and 1997 Lions all won the first Test and then the series. The Springboks did the same in 1910, 1924, 1938, 1968 and 1980. The odd years out were 1903 and 1962, when the first games were drawn, and 1955. In both 1903 and 1962 the Springboks went on to clinch the series, while in 1955 the Lions triumphed in Johannesburg before sharing the series 2-2. Both coaches have a lot to prove here. Ian McGeechan is desperate to win back the fundamentals and spirit of the Lions tour after Clive Woodwards shambolic effort 4 years ago while Peter de Villers knows defeat to these tourists would bring shame and anger among home supporters. Carel du Plessis still hasn't been forgiven for losing out to the 1997 touring side and that memory lingers like a bad smell in the minds of Springbok fans.

There's no doubt where this game will be won or lost. The breakdown is such an important part of the modern game and if the Lions are honest they will know they have come out second best for large parts of this tour already. The pack haven't gone in low or hard enough to clean out the opposition and as a result possession has been coughed up too often. Even without Schaulk Berger, South Africa possess the best back row in the world right now in Heinrich Brussow, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies. Spies at number 8 is an awesome physical specimen. Over 6 foot 4 and 18 stone, he can run 100 metres in 10.6 seconds. He is built like a tank and has the agression to match his strength and power. In short, not someone you want to mess with. We have already seen what Heinrich Brussow can do to teams on his own and his performance for the Cheetahs was simply immense. How the flanker was left out of the original Springbok squad I'll never know. Brussow, together with Smith and Spies will cause the Lions terrible problems and if Croft, Wallace and Heaslip are not on form and working as a unit, they will get ripped to shreds.

In the backs, the battle between the centres will be great to watch. Brian O'Driscoll and Jamie Roberts face Adi Jacobs and Jean de Villiers - two fast hard hitting men who won't shrug the physical challenge. There's no doubt that Roberts and O'Driscoll have gelled brillantly in the last few weeks and they will be relied on to create most of the Lions attacks. That said, if they are not given quick ball they will suffer badly and regardless of the ability and pace in the back three. No quick ball means not much chance for Bowe, Monye and Byrne to show what they can do. Again, it comes back to the breakdown. Win the battle there and chances will come. If they don't, it could be a very long afternoon.

If chances and tries are at a minimum for the Lions - which I think they will be - the boot of Stephen Jones becomes extremely important. On current form, Ronan O'Gara has the edge on place kicking but I can see why McGeechan and Co. opted for Jones. In the physical war on Saturday, Jones is more equipped to deal with the barrage of attacks from the Springbok back row. His tackling is solid and it will need to be. Too many time in New Zealand we saw O'Gara being pushed aside by the Kiwi onslaught and that is a risk the Lions cannot afford to take. I think O'Gara will definitely start one test, but Jones is probably just about the right option this weekend. We know he can slot points when he's on form and penalties could be the difference between victory and defeat. Similarly, Jones is not afraid to take the ball on and if he can create some go forward momentum for his backline, the Lions might spot a few weaknesses in the Springbok defence.

The batte between the two biggest scrum halves in world rugby, Mike Philips and Fourie du Preez, is also an intriguing one. Both hugely physcal, both love to have a cut and in defence, neither shirk their responsibilities. Fourie du Preez was outstanding during the 2007 World Cup and watch out for his wllingness to cover the ground on the pitch - popping up at full back, wing and even in the forwards. Philips will have his hands full.

Looking at all the stats, going through both teams and on current form, I cannot see anything but a South Africa win. I really feel the Lions have yet to be truly tested on this tour and the difference in standard between the sides they have already played and the Springbok test team is huge. Paul O'Connell will need to have his team playing at a level beyond anything we have seen so far and although the Lions are capable up stepping up a gear, I feel South Africa have too much in all areas of the field to deal with anything the tourists throw at them.

Recommended:

2 points South Africa minus 7.5 points @ evens

1 point South Africa minus 19.5 points @ 4.8

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