Geoffrey Riddle / 03 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Momentum is the most important factor when sizing up who is going to triumph. In 10 years of Six Nations rugby, only the French have lost their season curtain-raiser and have gone on to win the jewel in the northern hemisphere crown."

There was one thing that all the coaches were in agreement over at the Six Nations launch: a fast start is a priority.

Ryan Jones, the Wales skipper, who has two Grand Slams to his name, summed it up best: "It is a competition about momentum. If you get an early win, you relieve a certain amount of pressure. If you don't get an early win, you are always chasing."

That is probably the most important factor when sizing up who is going to triumph in this year's Six Nations tournament. In 10 years of Six Nations rugby, only the French have lost their season curtain-raiser and have gone on to win the jewel in the northern hemisphere crown. They lost 20-16 to Scotland at Murrayfield in 2006, something they must try to avoid this time around.

Of the other opening fixtures, Ireland would seem to have the easiest task at home to Italy, but England and Wales's centenary tussle at Twickenham looks a real humdinger. The betting suggests that there isn't much in it either, with the home side trading at [1.87] and Wales at [2.28].

Punters should mindful that fitness is certain to play a part in this year's tournament. Ireland and Wales contributed the lion's share to the British and Irish jamboree to South Africa this summer. Ireland gave 13 players to the Lions cause, while Wales contributed 12. But Ireland's provincial system is particularly adept at looking after its own, as Brian O'Driscoll was quick to outline when he suggested he was feeling no ill effects from the 2-1 defeat to South Africa.

He said: "It's partly about how you are managed, but also how you manage yourself. In Ireland we are in a fortunate situation that the Union and provinces look after us well. Sometimes after long seasons it can take its toll, but you've just got to learn to peak at the right times."

Martin Johnson was less diplomatic than O'Driscoll, stating: "Coming off a long season is tough for any player. You need to be mentally strong. If you think you're tired then you are."

That may well be why England are less fit than their rivals. Elsewhere, I have outlined that, statistically at least, England look unfit. If you remember Ireland's performances in the autumn, they came back from half-time deficits to beat South Africa, and draw with Australia. The last time England came back from a half-time deficit to win a match was against France in the semi-final of the 2007 World Cup.

In-running traders thrive on information like that, but what is particularly interesting for those who enjoy the thrill of in-play betting, is the importance of getting on the scoresheet early in the second half. Rugby is a cyclical game, and since the 2007 World Cup there have been 144 matches between the Six Nations teams, the Tri-Nations teams and Argentina. Just over 70 per cent of those have been won simply by the side who scored the first points of the second half.

That percentage increased during the autumn internationals, where 16 of the 19 fixtures were won by the side who scored the first points after the break, and there wasn't even a score in the second period in Scotland's dour clash with Argentina.

So you are looking for a side that is going to win their opening match, who has an easy draw, and who can get on the scoresheet quickly in the second half. Ireland fit the bill. They are in a scintillating run of form, and with Ronan O'Gara and Jonathan Sexton, they have two fly-halves who can orchestrate a game in any way. Ireland have an excellent pack, led by the fearsome Paul O'Connell, who has grown in stature over the last few years, and their backs have become more incisive and could run riot against Italy at home.

But I won't be backing them. They are not value at [3.7] in what looks a decidedly dodgy tournament. The best bet of the Six Nations this year is No Grand Slam winner at [1.68]. France could easily get turned over at Murrayfield and Cardiff, while Ireland have two potentially tricky fixtures at Twickenham and Stade De France. England v Wales is a toss up and at the prices, I reckon the odds should really be nearer [1.55].